Month: October 2014

You won’t be disappointed if you do.

Expecting the worst means assuming Maryland rescinds.  Very blue state, with former Gov. O’Malley wanting to run for President.  We’re down to 23.

It also means assuming one of the Resolutions we’re counting is defective — could happen.  Down to 22.

So even if we got all our target states we’re at 33.  That’s why the election in 5 days is critical.  We’ve got to win the Kentucky House to get to 34.  Maine, Washington, Oregon — any or all could flip in a wave election.  If we only get Kentucky that means we have to win every target state, including tough ones like Idaho, Arizona, and Oklahoma.  Can be done, but it will, in my reluctant opinion, require more than the Task Force currently has going for it.  We need help.  Having a couple states to spare would make it a lot more realistic.

Catch a wave and you’re sittin’ on top of the world.

John Aglialoro made a fortune making exercise equipment.  John Mackey co-founded Whole Foods.  Both are libertarians.  Aglialoro is hosting the Liberty Congress in Philly on 11-11.  Mackey will be there.  They’ve got oodles of money and want to save their country.

The Congress is about Article V.  Nick Dranias will present on his “interstate compact” approach.  Mark Meckler will present for CoS.  Dave Biddulph will close for the BBA Task Force.

Mike Ferris of CoS has already gotten to Aglialoro, but he wouldn’t be calling the Congress if he didn’t want to explore alternatives.

I think this is big.  If they don’t quite “get” Article V yet, Aglialoro and Mackey will come away from the Congress convinced that Article V is the answer.  They’re very bright, patriotic guys.  They may not know a lot about politics, but they’re quick learners, I hope.

Worst case is they decide to go whole hog on CoS.  Best case they fund the Task Force.  But they’ll decide to push Article V.  They probably won’t just jump in — they’ll take some time.  But once the Task Force gets to 27, 28, 29……they’ll get it.  Do the BBA through Article V and everything falls into place.

Money talks.

Spoke today with Sen. Fred Emerich, ALEC co-chair of Wyoming.  He’s concerned about a runaway, but reasonable.  He’s the kind of guy that Natelson, or even I, could bring around.  He’s a college buddy of Appropriations Chair Eli Bebout, who we’re targeting as our sponsor.  Bebout is set to move up to Senate Majority Leader, and Emerich says he would bring people around if he’s the sponsor.  Emerich was friendly, encouraging me to go ahead and make the cold call to Bebout.

Natelson only lives 100 miles or so from Cheyenne, so he’ll have no problem making an appearance when the session starts.  I’m betting he hits it out of the park.  He doesn’t want to testify at committee hearings, since he feels minds are already made up.  I’ll see if the Wyoming Liberty Group would sponsor a round table discussion, seminar — maybe even a debate.

Wyoming’s legislature has a forty day session in odd years, when substantive matters are dealt with.  A 20 day session in even years dealing only with budgetary issues, unless 2/3 vote to take up substance.  So here’s the backup plan if we don’t get Wyoming in 2015.  We have the Republican Governor call a special session, to convene immediately after the regular 2016 session adjourns.  That way there’s no real added expense, and we don’t need 2/3.  If we’re at 32 or 33 I think we get a special session.  This plan is not available in Montana, which has a Democratic Governor.  So Montana remains the must get state of 2015.

People are saying the Amazing Democratic Turnout Machine will rescue the D’s from that big wave we see coming.  But turnout never beats a wave.

Kobani looks like it won’t fall, thank God.  That would have been ugly.  Just a hunch, but I think the White House realized that the fall of Kobani would have been a huge political hit on Obama.  So they told the Pentagon to do what was necessary.  For once, political calculation does some actual good.

Once the World Series is over, no later than Wednesday the 29th, the undecided will decide.  If there are more cases of Ebola, it would turn into a rout.  Barring that, for the life of me I can’t think of anything that changes in the next two weeks.

And if nothing changes the wave roars.

A Liberian died from Ebola in Dallas, two nurses were infected, and on cable news it’s all ebola all the time.  When cable news gets hold of a story it won ‘t let go, so this will probably continue for the 17 days until the election.  Because Obama refuses to isolate the West African countries where it comes from, he’s hurting the Democrat brand.  I think he doesn’t want to stigmatize Africans because of his solidarity with them — it’s racial.  And it’s bullshit, and people know it.  He’ll cave  — he has to — but in the meantime he’s hurting himself and his party.

More wind to build the wave.  The way this wind is blowing we should pick up not only Kentucky, but Maine or Washington as well.  Maybe even Oregon.  This will not only expand the playing field, it should help convince the money boys that Article V is real.  You have to do a sophisticated, and optimistic, analysis to conclude we can get Article V with the playing field we’ve got.  Add two or three more states and more people will believe.

This election features the Democrat strategy of 2012 — don’t run on your record, or your platform.  The issue is the opponent, the Republican.  Obama won because he demonized Romney even before the Republican Convention, and a lot of upper Midwest working class whites did not vote.  And his turnout operation was groundbreaking.

I turned my back on politics, and gave up on this country, after 2012.  A year ago, when I realized the full scope of the Obamacare fiasco, I figured we had another shot.  This election is it.  If we don’t get a big wave, with all the advantages we have, I’ll be tempted to give up again.

A guy back east named John Aglialoro claims he’s willing to drop a hundred million on something like Article V.  Lew Uhler talked to him, and thinks he hasn’t really thought it through.  Aglialoro is having a “Liberty Congress” in Philly on Nov. 11th.  Most of the conservative think tanks and activist organizations have been invited.  Biddulph, Uhler and probably some others will be there for the Task Force.  Bill Fruth thinks it might be a setup, that Aglialoro is already sold on CoS.  We’ll see.  If we get a fair hearing we win on the merits.

Oklahoma:  Lew Uhler has connections to a group of oil and gas guys who have basically taken over the state politics of Oklahoma.  He says they will be able to overcome the heavy Birch/Eagle Forum presence in the legislature.  If he’s right we’ve got a chance.  Retiring Sen. Coburn has aligned himself with our friendly rivals, the Convention of States (CoS).  But I think he’ll help us once he understands the situation.  This is one of three problem states, along with Idaho and Arizona.

Wisconsin:  Sponsor Rep. Chris Kapenga has reached out to incoming members of the State Senate, and got strong support.  With our nemesis, Sen. Grothman, going off to Congress, Chris says he’ll have no problem.  We’re counting on him for our 25th.

South Carolina:  John Steinberger is Chairman of the Charleston Republican Party and the IamAmerican man in SC.  He’s sharp, committed, connected.  He’s close to Sen. Grooms, our sponsor, and they seem to have a good handle on the situation.  We failed last year because of poor planning and lack of time.  This legislature is unique in the way it operates, so we have to trust Steinberger and Grooms.  I’ve met Steinberger and believe in him.  SC will be 26.

Montana:  Brent Mead of the Montana Policy Institute is our man in Montana.  He’s reached out to the Montana ALEC Chair, Sen. Roger Webb, and it looks like he’ll be our sponsor.  We’ll have a big cc in a week or so, including Rob Natelson, and figure strategy.  This is the one state I feel personally responsible for, and one way or the other it will be 27.

South Dakota:  Former sponsor retiring Rep. Hal Weeks is as dedicated as anyone on the Task Force, and continues to do yeoman work.  Hal gets us to 28.

Wyoming:  Susan Gore of the Wyoming Policy Institute has a lot of clout, and is unsold on Article V.  We’ve got to bring her around.  I think we will — I’m going to ask Natelson to reason with her.  She’s not a Bircher or Eagle Forum, so she can listen.  But Wyoming is so overwhelmingly Republican I think it be, in the end, 29.

Add Utah and North Dakota and we’re three short, at 31.  If we got Arizona, Oklahoma, and Idaho we’d make it, but I’m not sure we can get all three.  Virginia is a long shot in 2015, but their legislative elections in November, 2015 — with Article V an issue — mean we should get them in 2016.  If the Kentucky House flips R, we should win there.  To win West Virginia would require a political realignment in the West Virginia Senate, with Democrats switching parties.  A long shot.

But if, seven months from now, we’re at 31, I think the cavalry arrives.  Then we’ll win.