Month: November 2014

Chuck Schumer is what passes for smart in the Democratic Party.  He says doing Obamacare was dumb.  They should have done more on the economy, to help the working man.  Like, say, granting de facto amnesty to 5 million more illegals, putting them in the work force to keep the wages of the American working man down.  And he’s the smart one.

What Chuck doesn’t get is that government can only have a very limited role in economic revival.  It mainly needs to get out of the way.  That’s what Reagan did.  Maybe Chuck didn’t notice.

It’s not just Chuck, it’s all the D’s.  They had no issue in 2014.  They’ll have none in 2016.  They’re all about using government, but they’ve just definitively proven that they are incompetent at it.  No one will trust them to do anything major for a generation.  They’re a spent force.

Their gal, Hillary, is a seriously flawed candidate, but all candidates (except the Gipper) have flaws.  Her real problem is she’s got nothing to run on.  The war on women?  The minimum wage?  Income equality, that’s the ticket!  She’ll use all that Goldman Sachs money to run against Goldman Sachs!  Brilliant!  Triangulation, just like Bill used to do.

Something’s got to happen in the next two years to change this equation, or we’ll get a third wave, as big or bigger than 2010 and 2014.  By then Article V will be ready to kick into high gear.  We should have a BBA by 2016, and then we’ll be primed for Congressional term limits.  By then most people will be familiar with the way Article V works.  It will be a huge success.  All the legislatures, and legislators, who were involved with the BBA will be raring to go on round two.  Especially the delegates who attended the Amendment Convention.  They made history.  It was fun.  They’ll want to do it again.  We should have 34 legislatures under Republican control.  Even if we don’t, on an issue like term limits we’ll get some help from enough D’s to make it work.  We could get 34 states in 2017, ratification by State Convention in 2018.  Then it will be on to the next of the Liberty Amendments which has the most support.  We might even be ready for my personal favorite.  I call it the Federalist Amendment.  30 State Legislatures would have the power to overturn any federal law or regulation within two years of its passage.  We’ll have a chain around the neck of the Big Dog in D. C.

A new sport is catching on in the White House press corps: counting the number of times Obama uses the first person singular (I, me, my) in a speech.  In Chicago on Tuesday it was 91.  Impressive, but not close to the record he set in Austin, Texas back on July 10  — one hundred and ninety-nine!

Back in ’59, when I was a sophomore at St. Mary’s High, I had a teacher who fell into the habit of constantly using the word “aspect.”  With Brother Bernard, everything had a lot of aspects.  The class he was teaching did not appeal to me (I think it was Religion), and the whole aspect thing really annoyed me.  So I got together with Jack McClenahan and Jim Rockett and started the Aspect Pool.  Everybody put in a nickel, and whoever guessed the number of times Brother Bernard said “aspect” would win the pot.  I think we got twenty guys to buy in.

So the next day, for once, everyone was paying close attention to every word Brother Bernard said.  I was the score keeper, but everybody was doing it.  So he’d say “One aspect of …”  and the whole class would simultaneously make a mark on their score card.  At first he didn’t catch on, but after a while we could see it was getting to him.  When the class was over he’d said “aspect” like 32 times.  Somebody won a buck.  We tried again the next day, but it wasn’t as good.  We all thought Brown Nose Rod Arriaga ratted on us.

So Ed Henry of Fox needs to get a Me Pool going in the White House press corps.  The next time Obama has a presser, everybody kicks in $100 and guesses the number of times he uses the first person singular.  They’ll all keep score, so when O says “I…” everyone will make a mark on their card.

It might get on his nerves, like it did Brother Bernard.

Republican legislators in twelve states have a chance to dramatically change the political landscape for the 2016 elections.  They have the power to tilt the table, to shift the political debate in their favor.  In about seven months we’ll know if they’ve seized this opportunity.

Deficit spending and the national debt will play a big role in the next Presidential election, especially for Republicans.  All or almost all of the Republicans will support a Balanced Budget Amendment (BBA) to the Constitution.  But they’ve been talking about this for forty years, so it’s a throwaway line in a stump speech.

Unless.  Article V is a way for the States to bypass Congress and propose Constitutional Amendments themselves.  24 of the required 34 States have passed Resolutions calling for an Amendment Convention to propose a BBA.  An Article V Coalition* has formed to seek passage of such Resolutions in twelve additional states.  Thanks to the 2014 wave, Republicans are in complete control of all of them.  (They are VA, WV, WI, SC, OK, AZ, ND, SD, WY, MT, UT, and ID  — three purple, nine red.)  Sponsors have been identified, bills drafted, legislative strategies devised, and grass roots support mobilized.  The goal is at least ten more Resolution s by early summer.

If the Coalition is successful, in June of 2015 the House Judiciary Committee will aggregate them, and recommend to the full House a time and place for the Amendment Convention, and a means of ratification.  Ratification by State Convention, which was used for the 21st Amendment, would be quick and easy, and thus the obvious choice.  For Republicans, this method has tremendous political appeal.  Members of the Article V Coalition are in close contact with leaders in both chambers, on key committees, and are assured of a warm reception.  It is in everyone’s best interest that this all go smoothly.

In the summer and early fall of 2015 all 50 State Legislatures will meet to choose their delegates, and to instruct them.  Late in the year, or early in 2016 — just as the Presidential campaigns are heating up  — the First Amendment Convention in our history would convene, elect officers, adopt rules, and deliberate on the language of the Amendment.  Voting will be by State, and when 26 agree on a proposal it will be sent to the States for ratification and the Convention will adjourn.

The election of delegates to the State Ratification Conventions will take place in all 50 States on election day, November 8, 2016.  The only issue in these elections will be the proposed Amendment: yea or nay.  The Republican Presidential nominee will stress his or her embrace of the Amendment.  They may well have had a hand in drafting it.  Republican Congressional candidates will urge ratification as well.  The fact that for the first time in American history the States will be exercising their supervisory power over the federal government  — the power granted them by Article V — will give the ratification fight an added dimension.  It might well drive turnout on the Republican side.

Currently the only organized opposition to the Article V Coalition is the John Birch Society and the Eagle Forum.  As organizations they are in decline, but are still a force in Oklahoma, Arizona, and the mountain west.  The Coalition is confident that it has the resources to overcome these political fringe groups.

Article V has the full throated support of conservative talk radio  — Limbaugh, Levin, Hannity, Beck, Cain, and others.  Potential Presidential candidates recognize the attraction of pursuing a BBA through Article V.  Senator Paul and Governors Pence, Jindal, Perry and Snyder have declared their support.  Ohio Governor John Kasich recently announced that while he is not yet ready to campaign for the Presidency, he will be out campaigning for an Article V BBA.

For two generations polls have shown overwhelming, bipartisan support for a BBA  — 80% of Republicans and Independents, 65% of Democrats.  The ongoing dysfunction in Washington, and the attendant debt, will only push those numbers higher.  For Republicans in 2016, melding their campaigns with the drive for a BBA will be simple and effective.

Only the votes of Republican State Legislators can prevent this from happening.

*Members of the Coalition include the Republican State Leadership Council, the National Federation of Independent Business, the Jefferson Project of the American Legislative Exchange Council, the National Tax Limitation Committee, State Policy Networks in target states, the National Taxpayers Union, the Liberty Congress, IamAmerican, the Article V Caucus, the Reagan Project, and the Balanced Budget Amendment Task Force.

P.S.  If the 34th State passes its Resolution a year late, in the spring of 2016, much of this analysis will still apply.  But elections for the State Ratification Conventions could not take place in November.

Got a little feedback from the Task Force, saying “Sleeper” from a couple days ago was too partisan.  It was meant to be.  It’s target audience was R’s who may not care a lot about a BBA and are skeptical of the whole Article V thing.  But they want to win in 2016, and using the BBA is a way to do it.

Ever since I joined the Task Force about a year ago everyone has emphasized the importance of bipartisanship.  I remember we were all excited that some D from Rhode Island was interested in the Mt. Vernon thing.  The Task Force has been around for three or four years, and when it was formed it made sense to try to get D’s to work with.  But it’s been fruitless.  We win with Republicans, and some D’s tag along.  That’s the way it is.  A façade of bipartisanship is fine.  As long as it doesn’t interfere with business.

I rewrote Sleeper and submitted it to the American Thinker.  They only take original material.  I sent them a piece a year ago that they passed on.  It kind of pissed me off.  The editor I dealt with, J.R. Dunn, made some snarky remarks about Article V  —  something he clearly knew nothing about.  I read AT all the time, and the quality of my submission was definitely up to their standards.  But it wasn’t my best.  I was all jacked up after the ALEC meeting in D. C. and I kind of dashed it off.  Sleeper is much better.  We’ll see.

A lot of the Task Force is going to ALEC again in D.C.  I wish them well.  We need to figure out exactly how the Jefferson Project and the National Taxpayers Union are going to fit in to our twelve campaigns.  They could be a lot of help, but we need hard commitments on what they’ll actually do.

I’m not going.  I don’t generally like going to meetings.  Most people in meetings don’t have a lot say, but they want to talk anyway.  It’s tiresome.  When I left the legislature in 1990 the nice thing was all the meetings I didn’t have to go to.

I wasn’t a natural politician.

The Republican State Leadership Council is the arm of the Party tasked with electing R’s at the state level, saving Governors.  They spend around $30 million an election cycle, and, if results count for anything, are doing the job.  They’ve adopted a BBA through Article V as their own issue, and ask all state legislative leaders to pledge to support it.

Micah Ketchel is the guy from RSLC who works with us.  He’s been on some Friday cc’s, and a couple months back I suggested he do something for us.  He kind of blew me off, so I’ve been reluctant to approach him again.  But we need help in Wyoming and Idaho, so I emailed him and he got right back.  He said he will make the calls to legislative leadership that we need.  When a man who has $30 million in his pocket calls, you listen.

I didn’t ask him to make the sale.  I’ll do that, if necessary.  But he’ll get me in the room.  Two months ago the current Wyoming Speaker of the House, Tom Lubnau (who was with us) told me his successor would be Rep. Kermit Brown.  So I called him up and he basically blew me off.  Once you’re blown off, you’re blown off, as far as I’m concerned.  So I’m not going to try to cold call these Wyoming Senators.  I need an intro, and Micah can get it.

I feel better about Wyoming already.

I emailed yesterday’s post to Robert Costa at the WaPo and Jake Tapper at Fox.  It went to their publicly available website, so it probably won’t be read.  But there’s a story here.  The Article V Coalition has members who are well known and respected.  The mission of the Coalition is credible.  It’s goal is a political bombshell that would upend the Presidential race.

But I’m not a journalist, so I must be missing something.

2016 could be a Republican landslide, thanks in large part to an issue to be dealt with in twelve State Capitols next year.  It’s political gold for Republicans, and toxic for Democrats.  It’s been debated for over forty years, and could emerge as the overriding theme of the next election.

It’s a balanced budget amendment (BBA), proposed directly by the States under Article V.  24 of the required 34 States have passed the necessary Resolution, six within the last year.  Twelve additional States have been targeted for 2015.; thanks to the wave election on Nov. 4th, Republicans are in complete control of all of them.  The National Federation of Independent Business, the Republican State Leadership Council, the Jefferson Project of the American Legislative Exchange Council, State Policy Networks in target states, the National Tax Limitation Committee, the National Taxpayers Union, the Liberty Congress, IamAmerican, the Reagan Project, and the Balanced Budget Amendment Task Force have joined forces in an Article V Coalition to get at least ten more State Resolutions by early summer.  Sponsors have been identified, bills drafted, legislative strategies adopted, and grass roots support mobilized.

Seven months from now, when the 34th State passes its BBA Resolution, the House Judiciary Committee will aggregate them, recommend to the House and Senate a time and place for the Amendment Convention, and a means of ratification. Ratification by State Convention would be quick and easy, and thus the obvious choice.  This was the method used for the 21st Amendment.  Members of the Article V Coalition are in close contact with leaders in both Houses, and are confident of a warm reception.  It’s in everyone’s best interest that this go smoothly.

In summer and early fall of next year all 50 State Legislatures will meet to select and instruct delegates.  Late in the year, or in early 2016 — just as the Presidential nominating contests enter high gear —  the first Amendment Convention in American history will meet, elect a Chair, adopt rules, and deliberate on the language of the proposed amendment.  When 26 States agree on a proposal, it will be submitted for ratification and the Convention will adjourn.  Delegates to the State Ratification Conventions will be chosen on election day, 2016.  The only issue in these elections will be the proposed amendment: yea or nay.

For two generations polls have shown consistently strong majorities for a BBA — 80% of Republicans and Independents, 65% of Democrats.  The dysfunction in Washington, and the attendant debt, could increase public support.  When the public becomes aware of the power granted to the States by Article V, support would grow further.  Currently the only organized opposition to this idea is from the John Birch Society and the Eagle Forum, and their influence is declining.

The proposed amendment will have the enthusiastic support of the Republican nominee, who may well have had a hand in drafting it.  It could be the centerpiece of the campaign.

Only the votes of Republican State Legislators can stop this from happening.

Oh, and by the way, what’s a Democrat to do?