The Democrats have controlled the Kentucky House for about 100 years. A lot of people think that will change in next year’s election. Maybe it could happen before the election.
In 2000 Mitch McConnell helped organize the Republican takeover of the State Senate, getting several Democrats to switch parties. They’ve held it ever since. I’d bet the farm that he would dearly love to do the same thing in the House. Speaker Greg Stumbo is an aggressive, partisan Democrat. When he was Attorney General he liked to sue Republicans for various infractions. I bet McConnell can’t stand him. If the Senate passed the BBA early next year, Stumbo would bury it in the House. If we get Wisconsin this year we’re at 28. By mid-March of next year we hope to be at 32 , with the additions of Wyoming, West Virginia, Virginia, and Idaho. Kentucky will adjourn on or about April 15th. If five House Democrats bucked the leadership, and forced a vote on our bill, they could change parties and put Republicans in control. Senators did it 16 years ago, so there’s precedent. Those Senators did not suffer, they survived. Switching to the Republican Party may offer some of these vulnerable Democrats a way to stay in office. They can justify their move by citing the need to make Kentucky our 33rd state, virtually assuring a Balanced Budget Amendment Convention. This worth looking into.
There’s no way of avoiding reality. You can’t deny it, you have to deal with it. If Kasich announces after July 1st, as he is expected to do, his connection to the BBA movement will be there for all to see. If you’re running against Kasich, you take him seriously, and you take the BBA seriously. Because if we get to 32 in mid-March, and he’s still in the race, he would be on the cusp of winning the nomination by virtue of his championship of the BBA. Kentucky is a long shot, but if it’s going to be 33 it would be by April 15th. Next up is Arizona, which gets out on April 21st. (All these adjournment times are subject to adjustment). Then Oklahoma on May 25th. Finally South Carolina on June 5th, two days before final primary day, 303 delegates from South Dakota, New Mexico, New Jersey, Montana and, the big one, California with 172 delegates.
If you’re an Oklahoma, or South Carolina, or Arizona legislator, is voting for our bill, and getting to 34, a vote for Kasich for President? If you vote no, are you voting no to a Kasich nomination?
These state legislators are seriously conservative guys. John Kasich is not exactly their cup of tea. The reason Kasich is identified with us is because he’s the only one helping us, campaigning with us. The longer this goes on, the closer the connection looks to be. This could be a problem. There’s a chance it cost us South Carolina.
We need to smoke these other candidates out on Article V. All of these people, and there may be 19 of them, need to be asked about their position on an Article V BBA. None of them can be against it. That would be political insanity. We know that Perry, Paul, Jindal, Cruz, Pence, and Snyder are for it. We need to get everyone involved in the Article V movement togo to every single potential Presidential candidate and ask them their position. And do it repeatedly. Over and over.
We cannot be identified with one candidate. This is something we can all do between now and January. We don’t have any contacts in Iowa that I’m aware of. But we know a fair number of people in New Hampshire, and quite a few in South Carolina.
Time to mobilize.