In 2012 the Tea Party field wasn’t that impressive. Gingrich, Santorum, Huckabee, Perry, Cain and whomever. Santorum “won” in the sense that he was the last Tea Party man standing. Next year the selection is nothing to sneeze at. Santorum, Huckabee and Perry again, along with Cruz, Rubio, Paul and Jindal. One of these seven will emerge, the other six will fall away. If you’re not in that primary, as Bush, Christie, Kasich, Walker and Graham are not, you’re relatively indifferent to who wins it. You want the support of the runners up, so you play nice with them. The non-Tea Party Five, or Mainstream Five, or whatever you call them, are fighting to be the alternative to the winner of the Tea Party primary. Eventually it has to get down to two people. It’s math.
For what it’s worth I think Christie is a dead man walking. There’s no way he makes it, so you play real nice with him, and New Jersey’s 51 delegates, chosen on June 7th. Bush reminds me of John Connelly in 1980. All hat and no cattle. He’s got it all, except voters. The braniacs who think he’s a winner are delusional. He’s a Bush, which is a huge, I think insurmountable problem. And what does he offer? Is his record as Governor so superior to that of Kasich, Perry and Walker? Is he smarter, or smoother, or more attractive than they are? What does he have that compensates for the negative of his name? Nothing. Except money. And he has opposition that will be competitive. March 15th is make or break for Bush, and for Rubio. The Florida primary, 99 delegates, winner take all. If you’re in the Tea Party primary you want Bush to win. If not, you’re rooting for Rubio. I think Rubio beats him, and Bush is gone on March 16th.
Who else is gone? Most of the Tea Party primary is over, with only one or two still standing, besides Rubio.. Either Walker or Kasich will have won the non-Tea Party primary. Maybe both will survive. You really have no idea.
In my last post I talked about the danger, for Article V, of being too closely associated with Kasich. With that in mind, I’m going to tell Faber that we want to invite Paul to speak at our July 25th event in San Diego. He’s probably planning on going to ALEC anyway, so there’s a good chance he’ll accept. He’s the real deal when it comes to the BBA. He actually testified before the Kentucky Senate in favor of our bill. This would be a perfect venue for him, politically.
I bet he comes.