The Republican nomination fight is designed to be over by the Ides of March, and the winner take all primary in Florida. But there are so many plausible candidates it could extend into May, or even June.
The fate of our little project will be decided in March. We should have 33 states by then. Wisconsin will have been our 28th, then, in March of 2016, Wyoming 29, West Virginia 30, Virginia 31, Idaho 32, and Oklahoma 33. All in March, or not at all. I’m assuming Maryland will rescind, so our magic number is not 34, it’s 35. Arizona looks to be in session until April 21st. South Carolina will be open for business until approximately June 5th.
By the end of March there should only be, at most, three or four candidates still standing. All of them will support our cause. Politically, it’s a no-brainer. If we’re at 33, it’s a national story. It’s a competing story line to the nomination fight, and a connected one. If Kasich is still in it we can count on him to beat our drum. What about his competition? They will have to play along. They’ll have no choice.
So all the Republican Presidential candidates will be pounding on the Arizona and South Carolina Senates to bring our bill to the floor for a vote. Andy Biggs and Hugh Leatherman will become known to the American people. Maybe they don’t give a rat’s ass what people outside their state thinks, but I’ll bet the people of Arizona and South Carolina will pressure them.
It would make for great reality TV. In fact, the whole road to 34 would make a good reality TV show. You can introduce a new cast of characters every week. You have a show on Wyoming, and people get to meet Eli Bebout, who is quite a guy. Next week you’re in Boise, with blustering Bart Davis, and the comely Chair of Ways and Means, Christy Perry. Then on to Oklahoma, and all the cowboy boots and big hats, and then the magnificent Capitol in Richmond and a whole new cast of characters. It would be good TV. Maybe somebody can do something with it. I would, if I could.
Back to the point — we’ll win or lose this thing ten months from now. Time is short, and that’s a good thing as far as I’m concerned. I want to get this thing over with. But you have to ask yourself, what difference does it make if it’s 2016 or 2017? Will the Republic fall if we’re a year late? Will the new Republican President be hamstrung by the absence of a BBA? Will we start to lose states in a counterattack?
No, no, and no. So I won’t have a heart attack if we don’t make it next year.
As long as we make it.