So Jeb! gets on the soapbox at the Iowa State Fair and a guy starts asking him about the Iraq War and Paul Wolfowitz and his brother’s disastrous foray into the Middle East, and Jeb! gets frustrated and can’t really give a satisfactory answer. This is why he won’t win. For conservatives, Bush II was a disaster. We’re all talking about what Obama did to the Democratic Party. Let’s remember that Bush II cost us the House of Representatives. We wouldn’t have Obamacare and an 18 trillion dollar deficit if it wasn’t for Nancy Pelosi, and it was the political incompetence of Bush II that gave us to her.
The Bush Brothers are joined at the hip, politically. Conservatives gave George the nomination because he was from Texas and had a lack of competition. He blew it. In Iraq and domestically, he was a disaster for conservatism. Jeb! is his political clone, without the Texas swagger. And he’s got lots of competition. When the time is right, after the field has been winnowed a bit, it will be time to talk about the $3 trillion in debt accumulated by his brother. He won’t be able to respond any more effectively than he has about the Iraq fiasco. He has to defend his brother’s record, and he can’t do it. He’s in a box. The political class is already fixated on the Presidential race. The vast majority of voters are barely paying attention. So the time is not ripe for the $3 trillion dollar question. But when the time comes, if it’s done properly, it will be the beginning of the end of Jeb!
Chuck Todd’s not that smart. He’s interviewing Trump, who starts talking about our $1.8 trillion debt. He’s off by a decimal point, of course, but Todd didn’t pick up on it. He could have stuck it to the Donald if he was a little quicker. At some point in this process the candidate who’s quick, and deft, will have a chance to shine. Hint: it won’t be Jeb!
Trump’s not going anywhere. He’s under control, he’s the center of attention, and he’s speaking for millions. What’s not to like?
I’m beginning to think he could win Iowa. It’s a caucus state, so casual Trump fans won’t show. But there’s a real chance a lot of his people are so pissed off at the Republican establishment they can be organized into attending. Trump’s got a dozen or so paid staffers there, and he should not be dismissed out of hand. I’m a little over my head here, never having been to Iowa, but I get the impression that Iowa caucus goers realize they are not actually picking the next President. Look at some of the past winners: Santorum, Huckabee. And Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan each won about a quarter of the vote. If you’re willing to vote for Pat Robertson or Pat Buchanan, you’re going to be willing to vote for Trump. And 25% would put you in first place this go round.
I’m principally concerned with knocking Jeb! out of the race, and the longer Trump stays in, the worse it is for him. Trump is everything that Jeb! is not. All of Jeb!’s shortcomings are magnified when he’s compared to the Donald. Jeb!’s a button down, goody two shoe, do-as-he’s-told bore with a sense of entitlement. When Trump drops out, his people are not going to Jeb! Since nobody knows anything, I can envision a scenario where Trump outlasts Jeb!, when you think about it. If Jeb! gets creamed in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina he may throw in the towel.
George Wallace asked for votes in order to “send a message” to the Ruling Class in Washington D.C. A lot of people wanted to send a message back in ’68. A whole lot more people want to send a message today. It’s a simple message, which can be boiled down to a few words, the last of which is “yourself”.
Trump’s the man for that message.