Peak Trump

We’re there, or close.  I doubt we’ll see a lot of erosion in his support for a while.  But he’s at or near his peak.  At the Iran rally today he was off his game.  He wasn’t ready to explain his opposition, other than to call it the worst deal he’s ever seen in his life.  He got off a good line, guaranteeing the return of four Americans held in Iran if he’s elected.  We just have to trust him on that.  His main point was that he is a winner, and we’ll win so much when he’s President we’ll get bored with it.  Then he tried to top himself.  We’ll not only be winning, but “winning bigly”, whatever that means.  It was awkward, off key.

Contrary to Parson Cruz, and most of the Trump Tribe, he wants to let Syrian refugees in.  This isn’t going to win him any supporters.  The Parson’s more of a hard ass than he is, on this issue.  His support of affirmative action is going to cost him, once it’s well known.  I’m sure he’s got a few more tricks up his sleeve, but the basis of his appeal has been out there for some time, for all to see.  If you haven’t bought in yet, you’re not likely to.

In Colin Woodard”s American Nations, he says New York City ( or New Netherlands, as he calls it) is a separate and distinct American subculture, as unique as New England, the Midlands, Appalachian Scotch-Irish, and all the others.  It’s a money culture, cosmopolitan and amoral.  Trump is the embodiment of New York City, which has never been popular in the rest of America, and is not today.  This will catch up to him.

The fact is that the Donald has always been a crony capitalist.  His Dad showed him the way long ago, when he was the largest non-family donor to the Hugh Carey campaign for Governor of New York in 1974.  Real estate developers expect a return on their investments, in property or in politicians.  You can’t operate in the real estate game in New York without greasing the wheels.  It’s all just business.  But it is corruption, too.  At some point, perhaps soon, he’ll have to defend his career of pay to play.

Joe Biden’s a likable guy, just not that bright.  On Labor Day he’s pounding the podium, yelling about American workers’ stagnant wages.  I guess he doesn’t realize that the price of labor is subject to economic reality.  When you increase the supply of labor, by massive immigration, you lower its price.  We want workers to be scarce, and make employers compete for them.  This is what Big Business abhors, which is why they’ll subvert their own country for cheap labor.  Trump gets that part, and it accounts for his performance to date.

Oddly, Bernie Sanders is the only Democrat who also does.  Bernie just doesn’t talk about it too much.  Maybe he will when he gets to South Carolina.  Blacks don’t care much for Bernie, we hear.  Maybe if he tells them the truth, that the Democratic Establishment is selling them down the river in exchange for Hispanic votes, maybe that will make an impression.

As I’ve mentioned occasionally, politics is arithmetic, and includes division.  In political division, you try to divide the opposition.  You want factions on the other side fighting with each other.  Blacks and Hispanics are the two building blocks of the Democratic coalition.  But blacks don’t like immigration, despite what their political leaders may say.  And, on the ground, blacks and Hispanics don’t like each other.  Most prison violence, and high school fights, at least in California, are black vs. Hispanic.  Hispanics and blacks wage gang turf battles in southern California constantly.

If the California Republican Party has a future, it is in luring Hispanics away from the Democrats with the promise of economic development and good, high paying jobs.

Actually, that’s how we can win blacks, too.

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