Month: October 2015

The betting markets, Bill Clinton, and I agree.  It’s Marco.  The question for Billy Jeff and the left is, what are you going to do about it?  While we know the slanders are coming, we don’t know when, and we don’t know how. It’s their only realistic hope.  Hillary can only be elected if she’s able to disqualify her opponent.

Bush country doesn’t look like it going to take this lying down, and that’s a good thing.  Throw everything you’ve got at him, I say.  Put everything on the table, so that when it’s Clinton’s turn there’s nothing new to say.  Make it all old news.

As I’ve been saying, fire should be fought with fire, but Rubio and his campaign are not the ones to do the torching.  Especially against a female, attacks can blow back on the attacker.  So Future 45 (the next President will be our 45th) and similar superpacs will need to do the deed.  I hope to affiliate myself with one.  This is the kind of thing that I enjoy, and, if I do say so myself, I know how to do.

I really want to tag Hillary on the racial discrimination that masquerades as benevolent affirmative action.  This is the issue that wins the working class whites in the Midwest, and seals the election.  And it’s an issue Rubio shouldn’t bring up himself.  He wants to be the President of all of America, including blacks.  Strident opposition to affirmative action has nothing to do with racism, but a lot of blacks cannot be convinced otherwise, so Marco won’t do this himself.

One idea for an ad is to have four nice looking young women on camera, white, black, Hispanic and Asian.  The announcer explains that the government will promote the interests of two of these women at the expense of the other two, and ask why?  Then you tie it to Hillary.  It’s a work in progress.

What was it like on that debate stage a few days ago, watching Rubio up close?  It’s got to be a little demoralizing.  This guy is so good, such a natural, that they all knew they were watching a star being born.  The showman Trump, in particular, must have been impressed.  When the time comes, I want the Donald out on the campaign trail for Marco, so that’s important.

I remember reading some semi-scholarly dissertation on the qualities of a leader, back in paleolithic times.  The first was skill in the arts of war. Marco doesn’t have that,  but he’s a bit of a jock, getting a college football scholarship.  The second was being a personally attractive person, the kind of guy other guys like to be around.  The third was communication skills.  There were a bunch of others, like intelligence, coolness under fire, and a sense of justice.  The one that still counts in today’s world is being liked by the ladies.

Babbie is a 68 year old white woman, married to the same man for 44 years, and not particularly interested in politics.  In the first debate she probably saw Rubio on the screen for ten minutes.  Afterward she told me it wasn’t even close.  It was Rubio.   Case closed.

When I first felt the change in the political tide two years ago, I knew it would be historic, but you never know to what extent.  I thought it was going to be so strong that it didn’t really need a leader.  Anybody, a Kascih, for instance, would do.  A modern day Harding, if you will.  But by God we’ve got a leader, and an exceptionally skilled one, and an attractive man and family to boot.

We call this site the Reagan Project for a reason  — respect for the Gipper.  So it’s no disrespect to say it, but Marco Rubio is by far a better politician.

My old buddy Danny Fleming’s boy, Daniel III, is getting married on the beach here at Cabo San Lucas in about 15 minutes.  Big Dan can’t be here, but I know he reads this blog.  It started raining at 4:30, but stopped after 15 minutes, so everything is cool.

I will attempt to restrain my enthusiasm, but things are going swimmingly.   Let me count the ways.

1.  How does Bush keep going?  He was humiliated in front of 14 million people.  When he came at Marco on resigning the Senate, it was like watching an old bull lunge wildly at the svelte matador, only to have its spinal cord severed by a quick sword stroke.  I don’t like the brutality of bullfighting.  But this was gratifying.  All Bushes are born on third base, and they all  think they’re a family of triples hitters.  You’ve got a lot of really cool things you can do, Jeb.  Hang up your exclamation mark, and get to them.
2. My Lord, Marco is good.  He is not macho, he’s a stud.  There’s a big difference.  Forget Reagan, he’s another JFK. Unless you’re old enough to actually remember Jack Kennedy, you haven’t seen a truly gifted and natural politician, until now.  Sure, Reagan was almost as good.  But the Gipper, even when he was in the movies, was never a rock star like Kennedy.  And from what I could see of Rubio’s wife after the debate, she’s far more appealing than Jackie Kennedy.  They’ll be together on the cover of People soon.  What’s Spanish for Camelot?
3. In giving Paul Ryan the Speaker’s gavel, and in cleaning the barn, John Boehner has redeemed himself, at least to me.  As long as Obama’s President, fighting him on the budget and the debt ceiling is a loser’s game.  There just are way too many squishy Republicans to make it work.  He’ll shut down the government, and when the media blames the Republicans, too many of them can’t take the heat.  They’re cowards.  That’s reality.  Boehner dealt with it.
4. Now Ryan can try to make serious progress on tax and entitlement reform.  It’s highly unlikely he’ll accomplish anything.  Obama is in no mood to compromise.  But even if the D’s refuse to deal, Ryan can make the good faith effort, one that should be appreciated by voters.  Most importantly, after the election, he’s the perfect legislative partner for Rubio (or, possibly, Cruz).  Marco doesn’t understand the budget as well as Ryan, and doesn’t have the depth of his Washington experience.  Rubio will be behind the wheel, while Ryan’s the legislative mechanic.  Ryan knows his place, he’s doesn’t have an ego problem.  They should be a great team.
5. Part of Ryan’s deal to become Speaker is his refusal to spend half his time fundraising.  This is how good people like Boehner go bad.  They collect millions of dollars from donors, and there’s always a quid pro quo.  You start representing donors instead of voters.  Since Ryan will be dong far less of this than Boehner, he has a much better chance of staying clean.
6. All the media candidates performed well enough to hang in there.  Trump regained his composure, and will continue to bring the audience.  He’s entertaining, and politics should be fun.  Fiorina’s strong female presence is always welcome.  And the kindly black, Dr. Carson, holds the pole position, which is a good thing.  Rubio does not want to be leading the polls right now.   It’s far better, at this stage, to have a putative front runner who has no chance of actually winning the nomination.  Sure, the smart money is going to see that Marco’s the man.  But he does not, repeat, does not, want to be in the lead right now.
7. Marco won’t be in anybody’s pocket.  My biggest worry about Rubio is foreign policy, and his desire to do Israel’s bidding in the Mideast.  He’s been after Sheldon Adelson’s money, and that meant he was exposed to Adelson’s fanatical support of Israel.  But all kinds of big money boys are going to be flocking to his side, and Sheldon will only be one of many.  Strong support of Israel is in the Republican DNA, but you can’t go overboard.  The American people will not tolerate another war in the Middle East.  Inside the Rubio camp, cooler heads can now prevail.
8. We have a very bright fellow on our side at the New York Times, Ross Douthat.  he’s the youngest op-ed writer the Times has ever had.  His predecessor as the token conservative there, Bill Kristol, isn’t all that smart, and has a snotty attitude to boot.   On Sunday Douthat explained  why Rubio is the favorite.  Yesterday he correctly picked Marco’s backup, Ted Cruz.  You always want a backup in these things.  Douthat is half my age, and therefor knows half of what I do.  I’m going to enjoy keeping an eye on him.

The rain has gone.  I can see all obstacles in my way.

It’s gonna be a bright, bright, sunshiny day.

I did a piece for American Thinker early this morning, and editor Tom Lifson put it up right away.  Here it is.  Later I find out a Superpac called Future45 has been formed by Ron Weiser, former Chair of RNC Finance and the Michigan GOP.  They’re running an ad on Hillary’s responsibility for the Libya debacle, which is a good start.  I’ll try to get in touch with Weiser to see if he’ll work with me.  They’ve apparently got big bucks.

What I’d really like to do is get $20,000, go to New Orleans with Jax Stafford (who filmed San Diego), and get a bunch of Paula Jones footage, which we’d turn into a 60 second spot.  Then we’d try to raise money to put the spot on the air.  Cable rates are really low, so if somebody sent $50 we could put it in a CSI rerun, or something.  If somebody gave $5 million we’d put it on the Super Bowl.  And everything in between.  We’d tell potential contributors that their donations will go directly for ad buys.  No waste, no overhead, just bang for the buck.

I’m reaching out to people, trying to sell this.  If anyone has any ideas, let me know.  This is something that cries out to be done.

The pressure is supposedly on Bush 3 to have a good debate.  I don’t think he’s capable.  Interestingly enough, that’s his main selling point  — capability.  As a candidate, at least, he doesn’t have it.  He could prove me wrong, but I don’t think he has it in him.  He’s just not a forceful man.  One of his inner circle is upbeat because now Jeb will be “empowered to speak his mind.”  What the hell does that mean?  Who the hell “empowered” him?  It’s not just the candidate.  The campaign is weak, as well.

Good Lord, is Trump flailing.  I get the impression this guy is going totally solo.  He’s got no one to tell him anything, so he’s off in his own world.  Last night in Iowa was a major embarrassment, whining about the polls and the networks.  I didn’t think winners whined.  I thought that was for losers.   I figured he’d start sliding about now.  But he seems to be coming undone.  He asks the Iowa crowd,  in reference to the polls, “What are you people doing to me?”  He’s begging them to get his poll numbers up, pleading that, honest to God, he’d do a great job, if they’ll only get the polls back up.  It was bizarre.  He is apparently totally obsessed with the daily polls.  A lot of people have called his demise early.  I think we’re seeing it happen before our eyes.  If Trump doesn’t pull himself together before the debate, he could lose it all in one night.  Is this the way the Donald ends?  Not with a bang, but a whimper?

Right after Paula Jones filed her sexual harassment suit against Billy Jeff, I had R. Emmett “Bob” Tyrell Jr. on my talk show in Alaska.  He published American Spectator, which is where Paula saw the article that led her to sue.  Hillary was talking about the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy, and I figured Tyrell must be part of it.  So I had him on, and I ask him if I could join up.  Join the VRWC.  He didn’t let me in on it, which has always kind of pissed me off.  So we’re starting a new conspiracy right here at the Reagan Project.  We’re going to have to keep the name under wraps, for a while.  It’s dedicated to exposing the real Hillary Clinton to the world.  You’ll have to donate to become a co-conspirator.  Sorry, but those are the rules.

To tell you the truth, I always wanted to meet Paula, because I admire her.  When I was a little boy in Richmond my divorced mother and Aunt Mary worked retail for close to minimum wage.  They were like Paula, single working women.  They were very attractive, and I’m sure there were sexual predators like Bill Clinton who tried to take advantage of them.  That thought makes me very angry.

So you see why I like Paula Jones.

Yesterday I wondered how the Democrats figure they win in 2016.  Stepping manfully up to the challenge, Mark Halperin of Bloomberg lays out the case.  He starts with four reasons why Bernie can’t beat Hillary, and then lists fifteen (15) separate arguments in favor of a Clinton victory next year.  They are union support, locking up the nomination early, Bill, learned lessons from ’08, money, oppo research, a fractured Republican opposition, control of the DNC, immunity to scandal, debate skills (she’s “fearsome, dogged and scrupulous in debate prep”), Obama’s not-so-bad approval rating, ability to focus on the general election, the electoral college and demographics.

Anything you notice that’s not included?  Like, an issue, or issues, to campaign on?  Oh, but wait, I left #15 for last.  She’s got a guy named Joel Benenson, and he’s in charge of finding an issue.  Halperin assures us this guy’s top notch, and will definitely come up with something.  At some point.

I know I’m old fashioned, but I always thought you had to have something to run on.  You had to tell people how you were going to solve problems.  At the Presidential level, you need to convey a vision of what you hope to accomplish on behalf of the American people.

Hillary has to come up with an answer to this question:  why would you be any more successful than Obama?  If he hasn’t been able to accomplish all of his goals, how are you going to be any better?  Why would the economy be any better in a Hillary administration than it’s been under Obama?  What do intend to do different, and better, and how, and why?

Halperin didn’t have an issue he could write about.  This is a tell.  Halperin is one of the new “Theodore Whites”, journalists who write tell all books about campaigns after they’re over.  He wrote Game Change with John Heilemann about the 2012 race.  All these people working on the various campaigns know that he’s going to write a sequel on the 2016 campaign, and they all want to be portrayed positively.  So Halperin gets top level access.  He gets the inside dope, often on a confidential level.  The 15 reasons she’ll win the general were quite obviously fed to him from a high level source in the Clinton campaign.  They were meant to be convincing.  It’s their best spin on the state of the race.

And they don’t have an issue.

In other campaign news Mike Tyson has signed on as a Trump man.  No word on whether they’ll be sending the boxing champ, and convicted rapist, out to Iowa to court the evangelicals.

The Bushes are knocking Rubio as the new Obama.  Be careful for what you ask for.  Obama was a political wunderkind.  If Rubio is as good a politician as Obama was in ’08 we’re in good shape.  And I think he’s better, in any number of ways.

I’m betting the ratings are down for tomorrow’s debate.  Trump brought the viewers, and his appeal is fading.  He has not, in fact, come up with a second act.  Now that a reputable national poll shows him losing, he could be gone with the wind.  It’s a vicious cycle.  A decline in the polls leads to a decline in media attention, which is what this guy’s been living on.  When he loses that he’s got nothing.  A celebrity candidate cannot survive out of the spotlight.

He could be gone quicker than he came.

I sent out a proposal today on my Paula Jones project.  We shall see.

I’m still trying to figure out how the Democrats think they’re going to win this election.

You see, people don’t like Hillary.  They don’t trust her, but nobody trusted Bill either.  But they liked Bill.  They don’t like Hillary.  And people really don’t like voting for someone they just don’t like, as a person.  It very seldom happens.  You can make the argument that the most likable candidate has won every Presidential election since TV came of age, with the exception of Nixon.

Now compare, in terms of personal likability, Hillary and Marco.  Think of them on a debate stage together.  My God.  You’d feel sorry for her if she wasn’t such a bitch.

The politics, and the candidate, of the past, vs. the politics and candidate of the future.

A naturally, and eloquently, passionate man, against the worst natural politician to win a nomination —  ever.

In a time of enormous distrust and even anger at the government, the party of government, the Democrats, can only call for even more government.  The Republicans want to rein the government in.

A decline of the living standard of the middle class.  This is the killer.  The Republicans offer a way out, and up.  They have an actual economic program.  The Democrats don’t.  They’ve been in eight years.  What have they done?  What more could they do?  They’re out of ideas, and can put nothing on offer.

Law and order is the issue you hope doesn’t come up.  But if we get rioting somewhere it hurts the Democrats.

But there’s always demographics.  My ass.  That’s long haul stuff, I’m talking about next year.  Working class whites in the Midwest can win this election for the Republicans.  And do you know who these guys really don’t like?  Hillary.  They can’t stand her.  She’s a Goddamn gun grabber, for Pete’s sake.  They’ll turn out just to vote against her.

So I’m feeling pretty good, myself.