The center holds

Thanks to the guys at AT for putting my article on the “A” list, with attribution.  Here’s the link.  The full article is below.

I’m getting annoyed with the commenters who accuse me of being a GOPe (rhymes with dope.  ha ha).  I was working for Barry Goldwater before a lot of them were born.  He was the last candidate I supported without reservation.   I liked Reagan, but he wasn’t a hard ass like Barry.   I have my criticism of Reagan, but it’s quibbling.  You don’t always get what you want.  You take what you can get.

It’s realpolitik.  It’s an unsentimental analysis of political reality, divorced from wishful thinking.  We’ve got a once in a century chance at a realignment election, one which could form the basis of a new center right coalition of interests that would endure.  This is an election we simply can’t lose.  And if we win we have to take full advantage of the opportunity.  Cruz and Rubio have their attractions.  They’re talented and smart.  But we don’t need inspiration.  We shouldn’t put a man in the saddle who’s at his first rodeo.  I have only a limited understanding of the amount of work that needs to get done.  But I know it would be overwhelming if you’re doing it for the first time.

The center holds

That’s my prediction for 2016 in a nutshell.  We have two extremes in our politics today.  On the right are furious populists, on the left socialist misfits.  Neither represent a majority.  As always, the center is the key.

Kasich and Rubio are mainstream conservatives.  Kasich’s record and Rubio’s rhetoric line up quite nicely.  Either of them will have natural appeal to the center, where elections are won.  Pundits worry that the Trump appeal to nativism will tarnish the Republican  brand.  Nonsense.  The winning candidate will be the brand.

While the Republicans will not nominate an extremist, the Democrats will.  Like Wilson before him, Obama has taken his party far to the left, too far.  The political pendulum is just starting to swing to the right, but Obama will insist that the Democrat candidate run for his third term.  Hillary, Biden and Sanders will comply with his wishes, or lose the essential black vote.  This is a recipe for disaster.

Centrist voters will have a clear choice.  A center-right conservative vs. a hard core leftist.

And hard core the Democrat will be, we are assured of that.  All the whack jobs on the left are becoming more shrill and militant.  The D’s have embraced Black Lives Matter, and there’s a great chance that could blow up in their face.  They kowtow to the earth-worshiping eco-nazis, who are wildly out of touch with the American people.  They cater to pro-abortion extremism, cheerfully celebrate the war on men, and sympathize with the mentally ill who complain of micro-aggressions.  Gay marriage is the tip of the iceberg of the homosexual agenda.  They will always want more.  They want their lifestyle openly celebrated, and the D’s will gladly comply.  The war on coal is just the start of a campaign to seize control of the energy industry.  They want to eliminate fossil fuels, and to hell with the consequences.  The war on white and Asian men that masquerades under the euphemisms of affirmative action and disparate impact widens in scope.  HUD plans to disrupt residential areas it deems too “homogeneous”, as in affluent white.  The smothering regulatory state marches inexorably on, laying waste to private industry.  I could go on, but this gets depressing after a while.

The point is that the Democrat is going to have a hell of a time appealing to the center, which Kasich or Rubio can do effortlessly.

On a website supposedly devoted to the promotion of Article V, I talk a lot about the Presidential race.  That’s because I’m not convinced we’ll get to 34 this year.  If Maryland rescinds, which I expect, we’d need Virginia, which is going to be a very tough nut to crack.  So I expect we have to wait until after the 2016 elections.  As Thomas Edsall pointed out in the NYT, straight ticket voting is on the rise.  And no Party has won the White House while it lost a majority in the Senate since 1860.  We need a Republican Senate, and a Republican President will virtually guarantee it.   We also need more targets.  We want  the Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota and Washington legislatures under complete Republican control.  Recently a party’s performance in a Presidential contest closely tracks its success in state legislative races.  This is new.  If I’ve got this election figured out correctly, Kasich or Rubio will win in a landslide and we get at least a couple new targets, giving us everything we need to get to 34 in 2017.

The pendulum swings, the tide surges, and we get our turn in the saddle.  It won’t last forever.  You shouldn’t plan on more than eight years.  What matters is what you do with the opportunity.  Make changes that are permanent and fundamental.  Like a supply side BBA, for openers, with other Article V reforms to follow.   Harding and the Republicans turned this country around after the 1920 landslide, but it was a temporary victory, entirely washed away by the New Deal.  We want our win in 2016 to be a watershed.

That’s what Article V is all about.

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