Momma said there’d be days like this


You should have listened to your mother, Jeb!

Bush 3’s not stupid.  He sees what’s going on.  He’s being rejected.  He’s not connecting.  And he really doesn’t understand why.  What’s he supposed to do?  He’s being himself, he can’t change who he is.  He’s nothing if not dutiful, and will soldier on.  But if he gets his ass handed to him in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s got to win South Carolina or it’s over.  I doubt he’d subject himself to sustained humiliation.

He’ll soon be bringing in big brother, it seems.  This is clearly desperation.  Apparently people with short memories are  telling pollsters they now like Bush 2.  But when they’re reminded of his failures  — and they will be  — he’ll wind up being a major negative.  Setting aside what he did to the country, his time in the White House was an absolute disaster for the Republican Party.  And while Bush 2 was a dope, but he had that swagger and confidence that little brother so obviously lacks.  Bush 3 doesn’t come off well in comparison.  And when he starts criticizing his brother’s administration, he looks disloyal.  He’s just screwed.

And now for some idle speculation.  I like having the three media candidates in the race right now, and I like having Bush 3 as well.  They all keeps things in flux.  As long as the race is fluid, a candidate polling in fifth place in New Hampshire, like Kasich, is still perceived to be in the hunt.  The fact that those ahead of him are the media candidates and Bush 3 means he’s still in good shape there.

I continue to assume Bush 3 doesn’t win the nomination, leaving either Kasich, Rubio and Cruz as the conceivable nominee.  Rubio is enjoying a boomlet, but I think the timing is off, and he knows it.  A year ago Bush 3 was the consensus favorite.  Then came Walker’s moment in the sun.  If it’s now Rubio’s turn, he’ll be scrutinized and criticized as never before in his political career.  The media will happily spread any dirt an opposing campaign can come up with, and the Bushes can play dirty.  Bush 2 gutted McCain in South Carolina fifteen years ago.  The same slimy tactics used to reelect Thad Cochran in Mississippi can be applied to Rubio.  I’d be surprised if the Bushes didn’t play dirty.

I don’t think they can take Don Juan out, but they can hurt him.  Cruz is unlikely to benefit.  Rubio’s voters choose him over the Parson for a reason.  He’s Don Juan.  Cruz is the Parson.  Cruz makes it to the final round if he picks up votes when the media candidates drop out, which he should do.  He’s the Trump tribe’s second choice.  For Kasich to get into the title fight with Cruz, Bush 3 must fade, and Rubio must be seen as unacceptable.  For Kasich, the ideal scenario has always involved watching Rubio and Bush 3 go to war.  It was supposed to happen in Florida, leading up to the March 15 primary.    The way things are shaping up, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bush 3’s Super-pac runs some negative ads against Rubio in New Hampshire.  Somebody’s got to be the one to fire the first salvo of attack ads.  It may as well be the guy with the most money.

I saw pictures of the candidates when they were kids.  Cruz’s freaked me out, it was so phony.  He’s about twenty, and it’s a picture you’d send a casting agent in Hollywood.  Cruz was into acting at the time, so maybe that’s what it was.  He’s trying to look like Don Juan.  All he needs is a Zorro outfit.  He’s trying to look sultry, with hooded, or veiled, eyes.

He may, in fact, be vain.  I haven’t picked up on that before, so maybe it was a stage he went through.  If not, it’s deadly.  Nobody likes vain men.  It’s something to keep an eye out for.

According to everything we’ve heard, the gridlock in the South Carolina Senate that has blocked us was a fight between Sen. Leatherman, who wanted a tax increase for roads, and another faction, which wants an ethics bill.  This hurricane broke the logjam.   The damage to the roads will require emergency appropriations of such a size that they’ll have to take a tax hike.   Leatherman wins.  We don’t think he’s got anything against us.  It was just, if he didn’t get new taxes for roads, nobody got anything.  Hugh Leatherman is 85, I believe.  I hope I’m kicking ass like he is when I get there.

My previous post, Trump for Ambassador, was going to be submitted to AT, but I hit the Publish command instead of the Save Draft command, so it’s out on the internet and AT won’t use anything but original stuff.  It’s just as well.  I wrote it four days ago and it’s a little dated.  There’s an article up in today’s AT by Fay Voshell that’s far better.  Here’s the link.  I have no expertise in foreign affairs, and shouldn’t pretend that I do.

Voshell seems very well informed.  If you’re interested in what’s really going on in Russia right now, I’d read it.  Vladimir is pronounced like “redeemer”, and Vladimir the Great brought Christianity to Russia.  The enormous statue of him going up near the Kremlin will be one of the dominating icons of the city.  Putin is a self conscious Christian, and believes that Russia will revive when her ancient Christian spirit is revived.

This is a man that can be dealt with.

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