A guy called Sundance has a website, Conservative Tree House, where he elaborates on his conspiracy theory. He thinks the RNC and all the mainstream candidates are conspiring to elect Jeb. Kasich, Christie, Cruz, Rubio etc. aren’t really running for President, they’re all in it only to help Bush and stop his man, the Donald.
In support of his theory he’s gone to considerable lengths in studying the minutia of delegate selection procedures in each state. Depending on when the selection takes place, it’s either proportional or winner takes all. He makes a pretty good argument that the deck is stacked for a well financed “establishment” candidate to prevail over an insurgent. Bush 3 was going to have the resources for the long haul. Less lavishly funded candidates might do well in the early, proportionately awarded states. But they wouldn’t have the money to transition to the more important winner take all contests. This is where you start building your delegate totals.
Cruz is ready for this. He’s going to keep going until the SEC primary on March 1st, where he’s campaigned extensively. He’s got enough money, he’s got organization, and he’s got some momentum. He’ll continue to do well in debates. He’s a finalist.
Rubio’s got the hot hand, but he needs to turn it into money and organization. He’ll get the money. We’ll see what kind of campaign he’s got. If they’re good, they’ll put an organization together. (I don’t envy these people. This is a lot of work. And they’re just getting started. They’ve got a year of this ahead of them.)
So coming out of March, I think they’re both in it, with the possibility of others as well, of course. Here’s where Marco has the edge. Most of the delegates available after March are in bluish states. Republicans in these states are not the red meat types you see in the South. They’re more toward the center. Advantage, Rubio.
Back in January Nate Silver put out an interesting piece about these blue state Republicans. This piece at 538 elaborates. They have vastly disproportionate power in the Republican nomination, and bear a large part of the responsibility for McCain and Romney. Take a Republican in the blackest, most Democrat Congressional district in the country. That district will send three delegates to the Convention. 4,000 votes could win it. Take the most Republican district in the country. It gets three delegates. To win them, you may need 80,000 votes. This is an extreme example, but blue states send delegates, even though there may be damn few Republicans in them. And these are more Rubio than Cruz type people.
I dislike a lot of people, none more than Paul Begala. But he is what passes for a strategist among the left, so I read what he says. He has a column out today, in which he says the Republicans are crazy. That’s it. That’s the column.
This is a tell. He has nothing to say.
Bush 3 stupidity continues to astound. He’s saying “he can fix it.” What a bunch of morons. I swear to God, that is the single most idiotic thing I’ve seen so far. What, he’s going to “fix,” the IRS? We don’t want it fixed, you dumb bastard. We want it burned down.
Nate’s new take is up in the New York Times. He says it could be Rubio. And he didn’t use even one regression analysis. Way to go. I’ll never call you Numbers Nate again.