Aside from demographics, the Democrats’ Presidential hopes in 2016 are centered on their “blue wall” — eighteen states with 240 electoral votes that they’ve won for a quarter century. With that as their base, it’s relatively simple for them to tack on another 30 electoral votes for a majority. But there are weaknesses in the wall, and it’s not really blue.
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with 46 electoral votes between them, are among the weakest sections of the wall. Were it not for a disappointing turnout of working class white men, Romney could have won any of them. All three state legislatures are firmly under Republican control, and all had Republican Governors until a weak Republican incumbent in Pennsylvania was ousted last year. Wisconsin and Michigan have gone right to work. These are not blue states.
Whites vastly outnumber Hispanics in all of them, 82-6 in Pennsylvania, 79-5 in Michigan, and 87-6 in Wisconsin.* Adding blacks and Hispanics gives you 12% in Wisconsin, 17% in Pennsylvania, and 19% in Michigan. You don’t need to be Nate Silver to figure it out. The white vote is key in all three.
Working class whites, in particular, the kind that cling to their guns and religion. In the spring and summer of 2012 the Democrats attacked Romney so successfully in these states that he was never able to recover. He was damaged goods, and people wouldn’t give him a second look. They didn’t like Obama, but they refused to vote for Romney.
I have, with great pleasure, watched Hillary go ballistic on gun control. I understand why. It’s the one issue where she is legitimately to Sanders’ left. It’s also a tell. She has no intention of trying to reassemble her husband’s electoral coalition. She’ll win the way Obama did, or she won’t win at all — with minorities, single women, gentry liberals, gays, Hollywood, trial lawyers and unions. The gun toting white working class is not needed.
She’s well aware of the dangers in this strategy. B.J. “Billy Jeff” Clinton, who was in a position to know, says that gun control cost the Democrats the House of Representatives in ’96, and the Presidency in 2000. She apparently doesn’t care. She’s basically calling out the NRA — come and get me, if you can.
The full article is in today’s American Thinker. Here’s the link.