Politics is complicated. It’s hard for the simple minded to understand.
Demographics is politics for the simple minded. Forget actual politics, the give and take between opposing parties, contrasting different political philosophies, campaigns. None of that really matters, or at least it won’t. Any time now. You’ll see. The Republicans, in their current configuration, are doomed. Soon.
But, guess what. We just might have a shot at 2016. But after that, it’s over. Trust David Brooks of the NYT. He’s a deep thinker, and can see not only the outcome of 2020, but many elections beyond. Like his buddy Stan Greenberg, he’s looked at demographic trends, and, starting real soon, the Republicans are screwed. Forever. Unless, of course, they embrace immigration, and stop harping on all the illegals.
As David said on Friday, “This will be the last presidential cycle in which the GOP, in its current form, has even a shot at winning the White House.”
Brooks agrees with Greenberg. We might have a shot next year, then it’s over.
But there are these little things that pop up, now and then, that demographics doesn’t account for, and doesn’t influence. They’re called events. They change things. If you can see them coming, you can see political possibilities.
These are the events that I foresee. Rubio or Cruz crush Hillary, and increase the Republican majorities in the Congress. A Balanced Budget Amendment is proposed, ratified, and adhered to. Sweeping entitlement reform, of the kind envisioned by Speaker Ryan, is enacted, and Medicare and Social Security are secure for a generation. The regulatory burden is slashed, if not eliminated, and we have an economic expansion rivaling the Roaring 20’s. Federal lands in the West are opened up, and the fracking revolution doubles in size. And there’s more, much more. We could even abolish the IRS.
So Rubio or Cruz lead the Republican Party in the 2020 election. Oh, but wait, I forgot, they won’t have a shot at winning. Demographics, you see, conquers all. And the Hispanics, blacks and Asians, all benefiting nicely, thank you very much, from the roaring economy, will vote for whoever the Democrats nominate. Because they want more immigration, and the Republicans won’t give it to them. Really?
This is called a political realignment. 1860 was a realignment election, as was 1932. They didn’t have anything to do with demographics. 2016 can be a realignment election.
If the Republicans deliver. They have to be on the way to a balanced budget, they must reform entitlements, and they must instigate an economic boom. If they accomplish these goals, then, and only then, will 2016 have been a realignment.
O.K., that’s a rosy scenario. But it’s the one I, and millions of other Americans, are trying to make happen. You can bet against us. Just don’t bet the farm.
Since I like Rubio I can imagine he and his handsome family in the White House. A Cubano Camelot, or, rather, Miami Nice.
Rubio’s got some ‘splainin’ to do. The Gang of Eight bill was a disgrace. I think he understands that. He gets to change his position on immigration just like everybody else. Because he’s such a slick and savvy politician, I think he can pull it off. He backed off immediately on any Syrian refugees. He gets it, and the more time he spends on the campaign trail, and the more he learns about the politics of immigration, the more he’s going to get it. The Trump phenomenon is an immigration backlash, pure and simple. These people are pissed off, and any Republican who wants the nomination better understand that.
The nice thing about being in the prognostication business is that you find out pretty quick if you’re right or wrong. Two years ago, on this blog, I predicted a political tidal wave, of historic proportions. The election of 2014 was a harbinger, as was 2015. A year from now, if I’m right, the wave will be at its height, and all those wonderful things I’ve been talking about would have a chance of becoming true.
Things are going almost too good.