Is a swan black, or white?

The media decides.  The Oklahoma City bombing in April of ’95 was a black swan.  The jihadi rampage in San Bernadino was not.

Before Oklahoma City, Clinton and the Democrats were on the run.  Newt Gingrich had taken charge of the House, and Clinton was whining that he was still relevant.  There was a lot of anger at the federal government, especially in the West.  The memory of federal law enforcement gunning down a fourteen year old boy at Ruby Ridge was still fresh, and the ATF deadly Waco fiasco was one year old.

The media was able to turn the entire attitude of the country around in the wake of Oklahoma City.  People who were angry at the federal government were potential domestic terrorists.  Before Oklahoma  City, Clinton looked vulnerable in ’96.  They’d just lost the House for the first time in 40 years.  The Democrats were on the run.  But Clinton and the media managed to cooperate in exploiting the tragedy so successfully that he could win reelection easily, despite his failures.

If it cared to, the media could turn San Bernadino into a black swan.  Islamic terrorism in San Bernadino?  That means Islamic terrorism just about anywhere in this country.  We let the Fort Hood shooters, and the Boston bombers, and the San Bernadino killers into this country.  Why?  What’s in it for us?  What justifies the risk?  How many of us have to die before we reexamine this whole idea of Muslim immigration?

The media will downplay this whole episode.  Nothing to see here, move along.  But maybe the American people don’t buy it.  May be they say, for all to hear, no more Muslim immigration. Some of these people, and there’s no way to know which ones, want to come here and kill us.  Keep them out of this country.  They have nothing to offer us.  We don’t need them.  They are of no benefit to this country.

Obama will have none of it.  This is one issue I suspect he won’t budge on.  He sees himself as a world historical figure, personally bridging the divide between the Muslim world and the West.  Her cannot condemn Muslims any more than he can condemn himself.

Hillary will pay the price, and it will be steep.  Obama’s approval numbers are going to resume their slide, and he doesn’t care.  The American people don’t approve of him?  Well, he doesn’t approve of them, either.  So there.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the hundred year tide, and the prospects of it actually happening.  I’ve read a lot of Walter Russel Mead the last couple years, and his theory of the failing blue state model.  This guy’s no righty.  I believe he voted for Obama in ’08.  But his analysis supports the theory, if not the timing.  The Democrats are reactionaries defending a failing status quo.  If you go along with Mead, as I do, it’s just a question of when, not if, the whole thing blows up.  Momentum is escalating, and everything points to a political crescendo next year.

Absent a black swan.  But if some nuts start attacking Muslims in this country in retaliation, the media would do all it could to change the entire narrative.  But no one has any control over this, and all you can do is hope and pray nothing happens.

On a brighter not the Obama administration announced today that women can do any combat job that men can do.  On a day when we’re worried about our personal safety and national security, we can all feel better knowing that if a woman wants to be a member of Seal Team 6 there’s nothing stopping her.

Take that, jihadis!

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