Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman of 538.com just gave us a Christmas present. It’s an interactive chart that allows you to adjust the 2016 turnout and a party’s vote share of five demographic groups: college educated whites (CW), non-college educated whites, NCW), blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/others. They take the 2012 results, after adjusting them to fit the 2016 demographic, as the starting point. Then you can make adjustments and see what happens — instantaneously! — to the electoral college as a result.
They point out in an accompanying piece that the Hispanic vote isn’t that big of a deal. It’s concentrated in non-competitive states, for the most part. It mainly effects Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, which the Republicans would love to have, but can do without. They also express doubt that the Black vote for Obama can be duplicated by Hillary. Spot on, lads.
You should try it yourself. The really cool thing about it as that it gives you instant feedback. Let me illustrate. I start off adjusting the black turnout to normal levels, from 66% down to 60%. Then I reduce the Democrat percentage from 93% to 90%. Perfectly reasonable, maybe on the pessimistic side, actually. Voting for a black man to the Presidency was a huge thing in the black community. There’s no way in hell Hillary can duplicate it.
Then I up the NCW turnout from 57% to 60%, the same as the black turnout model. This, again, is entirely reasonable. Then I start cranking up the Republican percentage of the NCW vote, starting at 2012’s 62%. I go to 63, 64, 65, and voila!, at 66% of the NCW vote the Republican gets 272 electoral votes, flipping Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Florida.
If I’m working on one of the campaigns I’m in love with this thing. All else being equal, if the Republican concentrates his energy on the non-college whites of those four states he wins the election. They’re the key.
Or one of them. The beauty of this thing is that you can tinker with all five demographic groups. I only adjusted two.
If you only adjust the Hispanic vote, the Republican would need 69% of it to get over 270. Which do you think is easier? Getting 66% of the NCW vote, or 69% of Hispanics?
It’s a beautiful tool, and I’m grateful to 538.com and these guys for coming up with it.
So San Bernadino was ISIS inspired. The media is going to try to get us to move along, and may well succeed. If the shoe was on the other foot, or if this was closer to the election, it could have had the same political impact as Oklahoma City. But if there’s another one, all bets are off. Forget all my talk of hundred year tides. You don’t need any sort of political tide to win an election against a President and a party that has failed to keep this country safe.
We let in 680,000 Muslims on green cards in the last five years. How many of them share the beliefs of the San Bernadino couple? How can you tell? It’s as though the Muslim population is infected with a deadly, invisible virus. A virus that just killed fourteen Americans, far more than ebola ever did. But with ebola we cut off travel to the sources of infection. The jihadi virus is more dangerous than ebola ever was. There is no known disinfectant.
Why do we let these people into this country, when we can be virtually certain that some of them will try to kill us?
Maybe I shouldn’t be so inflammatory. Loretta Lynch may be watching. Our AG says her “. . .greatest fear is the incredibly disturbing rise of anti-Muslim rhetoric . . .”. She vows to prosecute what she deems violence inspiring speech.
It’s good to know that the American people are now fully aware of her priorities.