One of the most important jobs in a national campaign is targeting — where do you allocate your resources? This is where 538.com’s nifty election tool really comes in handy. Once you start playing with it one thing becomes clear: the Electoral College Blue Wall of the Democrats isn’t a wall at all. Even with their creeping demographic advantage, in 2016 it’s a facade.
Yesterday I ran a simulation adjusting only the black and non-college white (NCW) demographic groups from the 2012 results, adjusted for demographic change. Evening out both of their turnout percentages back to historical averages, 60%, lowering the black Democrat vote to 90% and increasing the NCW Republican vote from 62% to 66% gives you IA, OH, FL, and VA — 272 Electoral Votes.
Maybe a four point jump in the NCW Republican vote is too ambitious. How about just a two point increase in the total white vote, college and non-college? If you also decrease the black Democrat vote from the absurdly high 93% down to a realistic 89% you also pick up Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, for a total of 296 Electoral Votes.
So if I’m plotting my general election strategy, I want to hold on to my percentages in the Hispanic and Asian/other categories and concentrate on the white voters of, first, IA, OH, FL and VA. Second tier targets are Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Read the rest at American Thinker. Here’s the link.
Obama’s giving a speech this evening. More mush from the wimp. I’m hoping he talks a lot about gun control. This one issue could easily win the election next year. The states that are the key in 2016 all have a lot of NCW’s who are either members or sympathizers of the NRA. Depending on where you live, and who you socialize with, you may not realize how big this issue can be.
When I moved to Alaska in 1974 I didn’t have any idea how strong the gun rights movement is. I was a urban California boy, who’d done a little hunting and target shooting, but it wasn’t a big thing to me. When I ran for the legislature my friend Rick Halford told me to become a life member of the NRA. If you were a Republican politician in Alaska, that’s what you did. Babbie and I didn’t have a lot of money at the time, and $500 was a big deal. But I did it, and it was the best political money I ever spent.
There are a whole lot of guys, and not just in Alaska, who take gun ownership very, very seriously. I’ve become one myself. These are, or can be, single issue voters. I’ll even bet there will be more Second Amendment single issue voters than there are on abortion. Politically, it’s a very big deal.
O’Hillary has declared war on the NRA. The NRA is at war with her. If you don’t think this issue can deliver Pennsylvania and the other target states I think you’re uninformed.
Roger Simon at PJ Media has even joined up. Welcome aboard, Roger. When you get an old Jewish Hollywood screenwriter on board, you’re on to something.
This is how most American men react to something like San Bernadino. We think of defending ourselves and our families. We don’t think about how calling 911 might help. I decided today to get the Glock I’ve always wanted. Gun sales are going to jump. NRA membership will get a boost.
How do you think guys like that feel when they see Hillary raving on about gun control? What are you, woman, nuts?
For me, the attitudes of the coastal elites are something of a mystery. Maybe it’s part of being a metrosexual.
There will never be real gun control in this country. If such a law was passed, it would be ignored, and if attempts were made to enforce it there would either be secession or civil war.
What, specifically, were the Minutemen of 1775 defending? Their armament. The British attempt at gun control sparked the Revolutionary War. Let’s not let that happen again.
This made a big impression on me, that the young Moslem woman in San Bernadino was given a baby shower by her husband’s co-workers, none of whom she actually knew. They were strangers welcoming her into their community. They gave her gifts for her new baby. Six months later she walks in to his workplace and guns down these self same women.
In the name of Allah.
There are other young Muslim women out there just like her, who will be inspired by her. There’s no way to tell which ones they are.
Explain to me, once more, why we want to let these people into our country?