It works!

A new CNN poll shows Rubio beating Hillary 49-48.  The internals show him beating her 60-37 among whites.  This is very much in line with the scenario I outlined yesterday, using 538.com’s election do-hickey, where the Republican wins with a 2% increase in support of whites, and a small decrease in black support.  This is unpredictive, but useful.  It’s a sign that the 538.com tool works as advertised.

 

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