Keep calm, and carry on

A couple hundred years ago soldiers were told not to shoot until they saw the whites of the eyes of the advancing enemy.  Not everyone has the discipline and self confidence required in such situations.  I’m talking about Republicans panicking over Trump’s popularity.

Polls at the moment show him far more popular than his rivals, and nervous Nellies worry that he could win the nomination.  This is as far fetched as it’s ever been.  There is a large majority within the Republican Party that opposes his nomination, and until that changes he can’t win.

The danger is a third party run.  It’s unlikely, but he’s an unpredictable man.  The longer he stays in the Republican nomination contest, the less likely, and feasible, that option becomes for him.  We want Donald in the race at least until Super Tuesday, March 1st.  After that a third party run would be impossible to win, and Donald Trump is not a spoiler.  By definition, a spoiler is a loser.  He will have lost his campaign for the Republican nomination.   He won’t want to go down in history as a two time sore loser.

The nominee will want his support and his followers.  He could lose without them.  They can’t be given the raw meat the Donald throws, but they can be convinced that the border will be sealed, illegal immigrants are not automatically made citizens, and that legal immigration will be reduced, and Muslim immigration paused.  If they believe the Republican will deliver on those, they’ll vote for him.  It’s up to the nominee to figure this out.  Cruz has, and I believe Rubio has, as well.

Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the left go absolutely bat shit crazy over Trump’s outrageous, in your face, f… you attitude.  You’ve got to admire a guy that can dish it out like Trump.

But I don’t think he can take it.  But I don’t want the Cuban, whichever it is, to be the one to put him down.  Very bad idea.  Someone else has to do it.  Media, third party of some kind — anybody but the nominee.  This is basic. I assume the Cubans are smart enough to figure this out.

On January 21st, 2012, Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary with 40% of the vote.  He had just been endorsed by Sarah Palin and Gov. Rick Perry, who was dropping out.

I remember people thinking Gingrich was going to be the nominee, just like they think Trump can be the nominee.  Except Gingrich had actually won an election, instead of leading in popularity polls.

I had never met Gingrich, but I’d been watching him closely for years.  I attended some event in D.C. in the 90’s that he was supposed to speak to, but had to cancel.  So they play his canned speech on the big screen.  I had an instant, visceral dislike of this man.  He was arrogant, patronizing, and a man, deep down, who was unsure of himself.

So after South Carolina I wasn’t worried about Gingrich winning at all.  A guy with such obvious off putting character defects can’t win a Presidential election  in the television age.  He wouldn’t hold up.  And he didn’t.

Trump’s no Gingrich.  Gingrich was the architect of the ’94 Revolution and House Speaker.  Trump, on the other hand, has mastered the art of television.  He’s a media candidate, and a good one.  His faults are different than Gingrich’s, and far more disqualifying.  Three months is a very long time in a modern nomination contest.  More than enough time for his weaknesses to be fully revealed.

People who are heavily involved in politics, such as myself, sometimes forget that this fight has just begun.  After Christmas, things will really get serious.

I’ve gone, personally, from supporting  Rand Paul, to John Kasich, to Marco Rubio, and now, finally to Cruz.  I’ve got nowhere else to go.  This is going to be fun.

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