What are Democrat leaning independents in New Hampshire, who are passionately opposed to Trump, going to do to stop him? Especially if Sanders fades, and Hillary’s locking up the Democratic nomination, John Casssidy in the New Yorker suggests they vote for a Republican, just as they did in 2000 when they put McCain over the top.
So if Cruz wins Iowa, someone, probably other than hard core Cruz, may beat Trump in New Hampshire, at which point the Trump bubble pops. I’ve never bought into Christie, which is why I hope he’s the one to benefit. He’s got nothing going beyond New Hampshire, so is not a serious threat. So if it’s Cruz in Iowa, Christie in New Hampshire, and Cruz again in South Carolina, you should see Kasich, Paul and Bush pull out, leaving the far more appealing Rubio as the last real establishment hope.
I got an email from the guys at a site called the wonkreport, who want to put my posts up on their site. It’s a platform site, like AT, which hasn’t seen much activity lately. Somebody reads it, even if it’s just the guys that set it up.
The brave souls at 538.com had a bull session about the D debate, which they were all apparently required to watch (why else?). These guys have some money behind them, it’s a commercial site. I wish them well. There may be other sites which feature conversations about politics at this level, but I’m unaware of them. They’re all lefties, but have the good sense not to let that overwhelm the evidence. This is an ideal year for their site, which spends an inordinate amount of time on trivia like sports. But then, the trivial is where the people, and the money, are.
Nate Silver opined that VP’s are selected to counteract a nominee’s perceived weaknesses, or accentuate his strengths. Actually, that’s just the beginning of the discussion. Many times it’s much more focused. Look back at some recent examples. Johnson was picked to carry Texas. He did, and Kennedy won. For the Republican this year, the choice will be easy. If it’s Cruz, who has the wind at his back for the moment, prevails, he picks Rubio to carry Florida. If it’s Rubio, he picks Kasich to carry Ohio.
Hillary needs help with the white working man, the guys that Biden supposedly appeals to. I don’t have any idea who Biden 2 would be. That part of the D bench is pretty depleted.
The problem with the guys at 538 is that their analysis is usually static, almost always backwards looking. It only holds if present trends continue. Dynamic analysis accounts for changes in the direction of the electorate. Take immigration. 538 thinks the Republican move to the right on this issue hurts them. Au contraire. If the R’s are able to conflate immigration with Syrian refugees, which they’re in the process of doing, this move is a winner.
We’re all in our own little bubble. The one I’m in says, for Hillary and the D’s, this whole Syrian refugee thing is a time bomb ticking in a tar baby.
Their little bubble is about to pop.