How Germans think about politics

Earlier I acknowledged Nate Silver turning me on to fingerspitzengefuhl.  Danke schoen, Herr Silver.  A very useful concept, though a bit of a mouthful.

The German General Staff had more than fingerspitzengefuhl up their sleeves, and some of their thinking can be applied to politics, and 2016.

Take auftragstaktik, or the ability to execute a plan without supervision, based upon your einheit, or unity of purpose.  The relationship between a campaign and super-pacs which are supporting it must be arms length.  There can be no coordination.  How can they work effectively together?   How can they achieve auftragstaktik?  By first establishing their einheit.

Once einheit has been established, and auftragstktik fully operational, it’s time to decide on a schwerpunkt, or point of decision. At what point in the campaign is it time for the kill?

Cruz and his campaign can’t talk to his super-pacs, so they must intuit his thinking.  Let me give them a hand.  The schwerpunkt is in New Hampshire, from Wednesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 8th.  Buy as much TV and radio time as you can.

But do it quietly.  We’d like to get inside our opponents’ OODA Loop.

Nate Silver and the betting markets give Hillary a 55% chance of winning.  That’s hard for me to believe.  I just can’t see what they’re seeing.  Surely it’s not based on polls.  Polls for the general election this far out are as useless as the polls were a year ago on the Republican primary.

Those numbers are going down, at least in the betting markets, and probably Silver’s as well.  There’s just nothing to support them.  If I were a gambling man I’d short Hillary right now.

And speaking of polls, who answers these pollsters? Who puts up with half an hour of stupid questions about who you’d vote for if X was running against Y?  Who are these people?  Are they normal?  There’s a difference between the people who hang up on pollsters and the people who take the time to talk to a pollster.  Maybe the people who hang up are all pissed off Republicans.

It’s official.  The Democrats are a socialist party.  We’ve never had one of our major parties adopt socialism before.  Up until now, the connotations were very negative.   No more.  Hillary and her party chair agree   — Democrats, socialism, whatever.  At this point what difference does it make?

My fingerspitzengefuhl says that’s a mistake.

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