Unless she’s uncharacteristically missed something, or was too soon to pick up a last minute surge, Ann Selzer’s numbers are the ones to expect. I think it’s reasonable to believe that Cruz’s superior ground game will close the five point gap somewhat. And Rubio has a little sizzle going into the weekend, which could up his percentage. But I’m going to assume we have three winners coming out of Iowa, Trump, Cruz and Rubio.
I’m a happy camper. I am not really concerned about the Donald getting the nomination. But he’s capable of giving the election to the D’s by running third party. The longer he’s in this, the less likely that becomes. So he can have a narrow win in Iowa and it’s not that big of a deal. He whored for ethanol, and it worked. People in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada already know and hate ethanol, because they drive cars. As they learn more about the way this farce has been stuffed down their throats by the politicians of Iowa, and their new Ethanol Man, Trump will pay a steep price for selling out the rest of the country for Iowa votes.
Speaking of which, I caught Iowa Gov. Bransted as a guest member of the Fox Sunday News panel — very unusual. Chris Wallace was begging him to endorse Trump over Cruz. His earlier treatment of Trump was soft. He was much harder interviewing Cruz. Team Fox is obviously still all in with Rubio, soon to be joined by the Wall Street Journal. I don’t think they’re worried about Trump any more than I am. If Rubio fades, and it comes down to Cruz or Trump, they go with Cruz. I have a lot of respect for Roger Ailes’ political smarts, and I’m heartened to know he’s not worried about Trump either.
Bransted was brought on to help Trump in Iowa, and maybe he did. But he was a total turn off to the rest of the country. We get it, Governor, ethanol is really great for Iowa. The rest of us just have to pay for it, in more ways than one.
I haven’t drilled down into the numbers from Selzer, but Harry Enten of 538.com has. One thing he saw was interesting. Trump’s “very favorables” — members of the Cult –have been steady since August, ranging from 25 to 27%. Perhaps his real core of support tops out right about there.
Another thing Enten saw was a head to head between Cruz and Trump, with Cruz winning 53-35. Makes perfect sense to me. This got me thinking, and I’ll be submitting an article on the Republican Party’s Trump Card. The idea is to adopt proportional, or instant runoff voting, in the states which still have time to make the switch. The law of every state is different, along with the political balance in the State Capitol, so there are at most eighteen states where this could still be done. Caucus states can do it by simply adopting a party rule. Primary states would need to change the law.
John Hinderaker of the popular blog Powerline is the new President of Minnesota’s Center for the American Experience. The Task Force thinks we’ve got a shot in Minnesota this year, and will be asking for his backing.
They had Ann Selzer on one of the TV talk shows this morning. What a nice, refreshing woman. As American as apple pie. I want Trump to lose, but I don’t want to spoil her moment in the sun. I’m conflicted.
If you think this proportional voting idea is pie in the sky you’re wrong. At least in Alaska, where I’m familiar with the law, and the party rules. In ’96 I suggested a straw poll at our precinct caucuses. I figured we could get some Presidential candidates to come up. Nobody thought it would work, but I talked them into it. A political party can almost do any damn thing it pleases, including adopting proportional voting at the last minute.
Our straw poll was a big hit, and I got to interview the candidates on my radio show. And Pat Buchanan owes me a beer.