Fox News is calling SC at Trump 33, Rubio 22, Cruz 21. A very good night for Rubio, a so-so night for Trump and Cruz. The big thing is keeping Trump at around a third. If that’s close to his ceiling, he can be taken out relatively easily.
If you believe, as I do, that Trump will not get the nomination, I still give the edge to Cruz. The Trumpistas I read on the comments section at AT are typical, I think. Their issue is immigration, but they also don’t like free trade agreements. On immigration, they are all, universally, dead set against Rubio. He’ll never get their vote, ever, ever, ever. He’s bad on trade as well, a lot worse than Cruz, who had the good political sense to rescind his support of TPP. On immigration, most of them will accept Cruz, which means he gets their votes. Trump has a third of the electorate. If Cruz gets 2/3 of it, and Rubio gets 1/3, that gives him an eleven point pop in his numbers.
So on to Nevada, where I’m ready to make a prediction. Blowout for Cruz.
I’ve spent a fair amount of time wandering around the back roads of Nevada. Every time I do I ask myself, Why does the federal government own this land?
Not for long