Idaho’s the key

I put a stop order in on my big stock purchase. If it gets down to 38, it sells, automatically.  I will have preserved 2/3 of my gain, and have enough paper profit left that if we need money, we don’t have to touch principle.  It closed at 41.40, and what I’m trying to do is buy more on the dips.  So I put fairly small buy order in at 41.00, and within fifteen minutes it went below that, triggering the purchase.  Now I’m even more concentrated on one stock– normally a no no.  But this is a special situation.  I think I see something that only a few other people see.  It’s the impact of today’s primaries on the election, and of the election on the market, and the chance, specifically, that Cruz wins.

If you connect all the dots, my stock is a proxy for the Cruz campaign.  If it looks like he’ll win, it goes up.  If it looks like he might not win, it goes down.  That’s my theory, which I’m trying to find ways to test.  The best way would be see if there’s some event on the campaign that either hurts or helps Cruz. If something looks like it should help him, the stock price should reflect that.  So I’ll keep one eye on the news.

If I’m right, the key for today is Idaho.  I haven’t double checked, but it looks like the big question marks today are Michigan and Idaho.  I have no idea about Michigan.  This is Kasich’s last stand.  If he doesn’t at least come in second, he’ll have to go.  Idaho, who knows?  Who the hell knows anything about Idaho?

I’m doing this investment exactly as Jim Cramer says you’re supposed to.  I’m doing everything the way he says you should do it.  I’ve never done it before because it’s too much work.  I’d rather think about politics.  But Cruz is my man, and  I just can’t think of anything he should be doing that he isn’t.

I’ve got the full set up going.  Watching CNBC on mute, my computer set to Yahoo Finance where, for free, you can follow every move of your stock, minute by minute.  Amazing.  I can also shift screens to go to places I check the news.  I’ve got my blood pressure monitoring situation all set up.  When Babbie got out of bed at 4:00 to check on me, I was in the midst of planning our 45th wedding anniversary, and I was getting pretty excited.  My blood pressure had spiked.  She told me to read a book, but the one I’m going to read, Master and Commander, by Patrick O’Brian, I’ve already read it four or five times.  I’ve read the entire Aubrey-Maturin series several times over.  So instead I’m going to spend the morning investing the was Cramer says you’re supposed to invest.   It takes up quite a bit of time, which is a good thing.

Cruz should win Idaho in a landslide, big enough to make people wonder why.  The answer, of course, is the same reason he won Alaska  — federal lands.  I learned a hell of a lot from Speaker Bedke and Ways and Means  Chair Christy Perry.   Idaho will want its land in tranches.  They don’t want it all at once.  The transfer must be tailored to the needs of each individual state.  We’re not using a butcher knife.  We’re surgically removing the cancer of the Far West  —  absentee land ownership.  It just doesn’t work.  And for obvious reasons.

So as Idaho goes, so goes the nation.  If I can spot some Idaho news somewhere, my theory will be tested.

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