Last week’s Merrill Poll, the most recent, has Trump 31, Cruz 19, Rubio 10, Kasich 10, Undecided 30. They’ve already started voting in AZ, so some of those Rubio votes are gone. There may be some Rubio voters who prefer Trump to Cruz, but there can’t be that many. If he’s smart, Kasich will stay out of AZ. He has no chance there, so he should focus on places like Pennsylvania, where he might have some hope. Kasich supporters will be able to figure out that in AZ, it’s either Trump or Cruz.
Trump’s threat of violence if he’s denied the nomination should be the last straw. This is beyond the pale, and calls for a quick, unanimous condemnation from everybody. I can’t see threats of riots in the streets as a way to bring aboard Undecideds.
And then there’s the federal lands issue. Prescott is surrounded by federal land, as is Flagstaff. A lot of AZ land is in Indian Reservations, where it will remain, as will places like the Grand Canyon. But there’s a huge amount of land to the north and east of Phoenix that is controlled by the heavy hand of Washington. The message Cruz took to Couer d’Alene, and won with, works in AZ too.
And there are a lot of Mormons in AZ, as there are in Idaho, where Cruz crushed the Moron, 45-28. He’ll win Utah by a bigger margin, and all Mormons look to Utah for leadership. These people communicate with each other.
It’s doable, and if Cruz takes Arizona he still has a path to 1237, and Trump clearly won’t. All hands on deck.