The Grand Canyon State, and beyond

According to 538.com, in order to stay on track to 1237, Trump needs 70 delegates from the three contests on Tuesday   —  Utah, Arizona and American Samoa.  I’ll give him twelve, from the Samoans.  Maybe he’s their kind of guy.

It’s apparent that Mormons, for some odd reason, don’t care for the Moron. I can’t imagine why not.  In Idaho, 24% Mormon, Cruz blew him away, 45-27, as I recall.  Utah is 60% Mormon, and he’s going to get killed there.   The 6th ranked state for Mormons is Arizona, at 4%, or about 400,000 people.  They could be the winning margin.

Rubio has organized support in AZ, and it’s now organizing for Cruz.  It’s a closed primary  –Republicans only.  AZ Republicans are very conservative, the kind that like Cruz.  Cruz supposedly has a superior ground game.

Bottom line:  538.com says Cruz needs 78 on Tuesday, and he’ll get 98.

Next up North Dakota, where 538 says Trump wants 10.  I’ll be generous and give him 3.  Cruz “needs” 17, and he’ll get at least 25.

Then Wyoming, where Trump wants 6, and I’ll give him 2.  Cruz needs 16, and I give him 27.  Thus, in the four next states, Cruz over performs by 69, and the Moron under performs by the same amount.  Who, exactly, has the momentum now?

Now the big one, the open Wisconsin primary, on April 5th, two weeks from Tuesday.  42 delegates, winner take all.  Even assuming Kasich is still out making a fool of himself, Gov. Walker and the entire State GOP apparatus, which is considerable, have got to be able to deliver here, just as they have for Walker over the years.  The polling is similar to AZ, Trump 30, Rubio 20, Cruz 19 Kasich 8, Carson 8.  I don’t think the Broadway Donny act wears well in a state where people are deliberately low key, understated.  It’s part of their personality.  538 says Trump wants 18, and he gets none.  Cruz wants 33, and gets 42.

Then Colorado, where Trump needs 11.  I don’t think he gets one.  Cruz wants 17.  I think he gets them all, 37.  The CO State Convention will be controlled by Cruz supporters.  Why should they give even one delegate to  Trump?

So in the lead up to the NY closed primary on April 19th, Cruz will be up 98 from where he “needs to be”, while the Moron will be down 98.  Add Rubio’s 166 delegates on, as you should, and Cruz has the lead in delegates, and a clear path to 1237.

But this all assumes Arizona, and the first three letters of assume are instructive.  We’ve got eggs, not chickens.

The stakes couldn’t be higher, and everybody’s got to work their butt off.  I know a few people in Arizona, and some friends of mine do as well.

We’ll be on the phone Monday morning.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s