The Grand Canyon State, and beyond

According to 538.com, in order to stay on track to 1237, Trump needs 70 delegates from the three contests on Tuesday   —  Utah, Arizona and American Samoa.  I’ll give him twelve, from the Samoans.  Maybe he’s their kind of guy.

It’s apparent that Mormons, for some odd reason, don’t care for the Moron. I can’t imagine why not.  In Idaho, 24% Mormon, Cruz blew him away, 45-27, as I recall.  Utah is 60% Mormon, and he’s going to get killed there.   The 6th ranked state for Mormons is Arizona, at 4%, or about 400,000 people.  They could be the winning margin.

Rubio has organized support in AZ, and it’s now organizing for Cruz.  It’s a closed primary  –Republicans only.  AZ Republicans are very conservative, the kind that like Cruz.  Cruz supposedly has a superior ground game.

Bottom line:  538.com says Cruz needs 78 on Tuesday, and he’ll get 98.

Next up North Dakota, where 538 says Trump wants 10.  I’ll be generous and give him 3.  Cruz “needs” 17, and he’ll get at least 25.

Then Wyoming, where Trump wants 6, and I’ll give him 2.  Cruz needs 16, and I give him 27.  Thus, in the four next states, Cruz over performs by 69, and the Moron under performs by the same amount.  Who, exactly, has the momentum now?

Now the big one, the open Wisconsin primary, on April 5th, two weeks from Tuesday.  42 delegates, winner take all.  Even assuming Kasich is still out making a fool of himself, Gov. Walker and the entire State GOP apparatus, which is considerable, have got to be able to deliver here, just as they have for Walker over the years.  The polling is similar to AZ, Trump 30, Rubio 20, Cruz 19 Kasich 8, Carson 8.  I don’t think the Broadway Donny act wears well in a state where people are deliberately low key, understated.  It’s part of their personality.  538 says Trump wants 18, and he gets none.  Cruz wants 33, and gets 42.

Then Colorado, where Trump needs 11.  I don’t think he gets one.  Cruz wants 17.  I think he gets them all, 37.  The CO State Convention will be controlled by Cruz supporters.  Why should they give even one delegate to  Trump?

So in the lead up to the NY closed primary on April 19th, Cruz will be up 98 from where he “needs to be”, while the Moron will be down 98.  Add Rubio’s 166 delegates on, as you should, and Cruz has the lead in delegates, and a clear path to 1237.

But this all assumes Arizona, and the first three letters of assume are instructive.  We’ve got eggs, not chickens.

The stakes couldn’t be higher, and everybody’s got to work their butt off.  I know a few people in Arizona, and some friends of mine do as well.

We’ll be on the phone Monday morning.

 

Money, that’s what I want

Now that I’m back to following the market, more closely than I ever have before, I found it’s an interesting way to spend the day.   I’ve got half of Babbie’s money in one stock, normally a no no.  But I watch that stock like a hawk from opening bell. I’ve got a very nice paper profit, and I’m not going to lose it.

I’m expecting a big surprise from the Cruz campaign tomorrow.  The ideal spot is in Utah, near the Arizona border.  This where President Billy Jeff announced that a huge portion of southern Utah would no longer  be available for any sort of resource development.   Wherever he appears  tomorrow, I expect a surprise guest.

I, of course, know nothing.  When I have something that I think will be useful, I tell Joseph Semprevivo about it, and usually he asks me to go ahead and do it.  It works out fine for both of us.  A campaign needs to operate on a need to know basis, and there’s no need for me to know anything.  I just speculate.   Maybe I should call this blog the American Speculator.

But I add Rubio’s delegates to Cruz, and he’s about 100 short of the Moron.  Wins in both Utah and Arizona tomorrow would get him 98.  Who’s the front runner now?  Who’s got the Big Mo?

I watch Fox Business on mute, and all day they’ve got people coming on and saying it’s over, Ttump’s won, get used to it.  I saw Ben Stein, of all people, spouting this nonsense.  Since when did Ben Stein know anything about politics?  Why not ask Madonna?

And then there’s these experts, the pros.  I don’t even like to look at them when they’re on mute.  Idiots, by and large.

I had a nice talk with the incoming chairman of the RPA, my old friend Tuckerman Babcock.  This is a very bright guy.  He’s happily remarried, and living the good life.  I hired his first wife to be my secretary in Juneau.  Anne Williams, my normal secretary, must have set it up for me.  She had a little boy, about eighteen moths, that she brought to work with her every day.  So we had a combo office/nursery.  I didn’t ask a lot of my secretaries.  Answer the phone and type, that was about it.  I didn’t encourage people to come to my office, either.  And if having this kid around bothered them, oh well.

I think Tuckerman would come by to pick them up after work.  The thing is, this little boy didn’t like me.  I remember one time he tried to poke me in the groin.

I liked that kid.  He was protecting his mother, a very sweet young woman..

 

My time of year

Sometimes, Lindsey Graham gets to speak for the United States Senate.  He’ll say any dang thing he pleases, things that other Senators want to say, but won’t.  A month ago he was giving a speech at some political function, and he said if Ted Cruz was shot and killed on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was conducted before the Senate, you could get off every time. He thought it was pretty funny.

Today he endorsed Cruz for President.  Again, I think he’s speaking for the Senate.  He’s saying something a lot of them aren’t ready to admit, but they have no choice.  It’s either Cruz or the Moron, and that guy is truly scary.  He’s no laughing matter any more.  And Cruz is the only way to stop him.

First Murdoch and Ailes, now the United States Senate.  John Kasich can’t last more than a month, if that.  The Donald’s going down, and Ted Cruz gets to deliver the final blow.  How sweet it is.

St. Patrick’s Day is one of my favorite days of the year.  I’m close to half Irish, but that’s not why.  Where I live, in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, it marks the beginning of the most beautiful weather.  For the next three months or more, this is a special part of the country.

I’m a lucky man.

Rocky Mountain High, in Colorado

From what I know of the North Dakota Republican Party, which isn’t a whole lot, when it meets in Convention on Friday, April 1st, to elect its 28 delegates to Cleveland, none of them will be for Trump.  The media may not understand this, because this delegation is required to be uncommitted.  This gives them the power to bargain on behalf of North Dakota.  It’s the smart way to go.  Senate Majority Caucus Leader David Hogue will probably be leading his like minded colleagues in favor of Cruz.  At this point, where else can they go?  The attendees at North Dakota Republican Party State Conventions are not Trump types.  They’re “establishment conservatives”, accent on conservative.

If Cruz is able to pull out a win in AZ on March 22nd, to go along with the Utah blow out, he’ll have two in a row.  More pressure on Kasich.  Properly understood, North Dakota will make it three in a row.

Wisconsin is the next, winner take all, and Trump  polls poorly there.  I can understand that.  He’s not a Wisconsin kind of guy  — they’re nice, almost as nice as Iowa.  They’re definitely not the kind the Moron appeals to.  The latest Marquette poll shows the Moron at his peak in WI  with 30%.  Rubio had 20, Cruz 19, Kasich and Carson 8 apiece.  These numbers look very promising, even assuming Kasich is still on his Mission Impossible.  Gov. Walker has got to come through for us here.  He knows only Cruz can stop the Moron.  I’m betting he pulls out all the stops for Cruz.  Anything less would be irresponsible, and that’s not Scott Walker.  That would mean four in a row.

Colorado is the only other state besides North Dakota that told the RNC to stuff it, and they’re not having any preference polls either.  Colorado’s 37 delegates will be chosen by the delegates at the Friday, April 8th, State Convention.  Senate Majority Whip Kevin Lundberg is leading the Cruz forces, and is the kind of guy who knows what he’s doing.  I do not expect Trump to get one delegate from Colorado.  If the media can be made to realize it, that’s five in a row for Cruz.

Trump may do well in New York’s proportional primary on April 19th, but Cruz should win a good number of delegates upstate.

Next up is April 26th, in CT, DE, MD, PA and RI.    Six weeks will have gone by, and Kasich will have absolutely nothing to show for himself.  At that point he has to pull out.  His vanity  be damned.  One on one, Cruz can beat Trump anywhere.  A win in PA would be all he really needed,  but by then the Moron’s antics will probably have escalated, to the point where no reasonable person could vote for him.

That’s how Cruz gets to 1237.  Trump only has a shot if Kasich stays in it.  And Kasich will only make a fool of himself for so long.

For some reason I taped the Kelly File on Fox News.  I don’t like Brett Baier any more.  He’s a weasel.  They gave Cruz a fifteen minute infomercial on prime time.  Murdoch and Ailes are scrambling to regain some credibility.  They were so in the tank for Rubio that they almost let Trump get out of hand. But they’re on him now, and they can do him some damage.  They want their newest star, Megyn Kelly, to look like a heroine.  She’ll be going at the Moron, I expect.

So Cruz does have a path.  Trump is relying on Kasich.  That’s all he’s got.

So the real question is, what kind of a man is John Kasich?

Trump, clues, and Cruz

Cruz will be in the strongly conservative areas just outside Phoenix today, Sun City, Tempe and Mesa.  Andy Biggs might even join him in Mesa.  No word on tomorrow.  I’m betting on Flagstaff, or some place similar.

Nothing on Trump’s schedule.  He’s got to come to AZ tomorrow.  His mega-rallies take time to set up, so maybe one tomorrow or Saturday in Phoenix.

Cruz will be talking about issues that are important to Arizona, and to conservatives.  Trump will put on a spectacle.  He seems like he’s trying to top himself, to keep his momentum going.  His comments about riots in the streets did not help him.  Even some of the cultists may think that’s over the top.

Cruz has got five days to close a twelve point gap.  But I think that Undecided pool is the key, and I’m betting they don’t go to the Moron.  The Cruz campaign continues to impress.  I’d give even money they pull it off.