Nate Silver of 538.com made his bones, for the world to see, calling the 2012 election, and since then smart people pay attention to him. He’s good at understanding polls. Beyond that, he’s still learning.
He’s out today with a piece that says if the Moron doesn’t get to 1237 on the first ballot, he’s toast. Way to go, Nate. You started looking at something besides numbers. And, of course, he’s right. Politico has counted a hundred “Trump delegates” who will abandon him on the second ballot. That’s the tip of the iceberg.
In a great many states, the actual delegates won by Trump are selected by State Conventions, which are all controlled by party regulars. These guys all hate Trump, and many of the “Trump delegates” they send to Cleveland are for Trump in name only. They’re willing to say they’re going to vote for him on the first ballot. That’s the real extent of their commitment to him. They’ll toss him like a used Kleenex after that.
This simple fact of political life is, apparently, hard for a lot of people to understand. The Donald has hired a smart guy named Paul Manafort to take over his delegate operation. Apparently the simpleton Lewandowski was in charge before. Trump is not going to like what Manafort tells him, if he’s being honest. There’s nothing Manafort or anybody else can do. If this guy wants to, he can milk a bunch of money out of Trump before he tells him the bad news. But fairly soon the Trump Brain Trust (which seems to exist solely beneath one preposterous comb over) is going to get it. It’s over. No 1237. No nomination. He’s a loser.
Then what? Fight on, and lose a fairly close one? Or fold your tent, save your money, and go back to the fabulous life of sustained self absorption that you love. But, he’s the Moron, so you never know.
I want this thing over now, for a number of reasons, so I hope Nate Silver’s words of wisdom are taken seriously. The sooner the better. We need to start destroying whatever remote possibility exists of a Clinton 2. That will be fun.
My campaign to unseat Murkowski in Alaska is looking better and better. Former Governor Sean Parnell announced today he’s running. Talk about weak tea. Mr. milk toast himself. A moderate Republican against the liberal, Murkowski. Sorry, Sean, but welcome to the race. You’re not corrupt, so you’re an improvement. But we can do a lot better.
I always thought Sean was an O.K. guy, just not very strong. If my scheme doesn’t work, I’ll see if I can help him out.
In a three way nomination fight, Sean can be quite helpful. He’s a serious candidate, who should run a serious campaign. We’ll have a hard core Reagan Conservative (my guy), a mainstream moderate, Parnell, and Murkowski, a liberal. Alaska’s a very red state. When I was scheming to run state wide, it was always going to be as the most conservative candidate. The only people who are more conservative than I am are crazy. I go as far right as you can. It works in Alaska.
I’ve decided I’ve got to go to Fairbanks at the end of the month for the State Convention. I’ll need to raise around $2,000. I should be able to pull that off.
I’ll see a lot of old friends. I didn’t really say goodbye to anyone when Babbie and I left in 2001. I was pissed off that I never got a chance to run for Congress. I’m over that, and can’t wait to see interior Alaska again.
People who live in perfect climates, like Hawaii or San Diego, have a good deal going. But living in country that has actual seasons, like spring, summer and fall, has its attractions. It gets too hot in midsummer where I live. But for the next couple months you get to watch the land come to life. Living close to nature is the best way to go.