The lesson of Salvador Allende

He was a Communist who was elected President of Chile with 37% of the vote.  It took a military revolution to get rid of him before he destroyed the country.  The Founding Fathers were familiar with this sort of story.  They read about it in their study of Greek and Roman political history.  If you love knowledge, read Plutarch, all of him.  Many of the Framers did.  And they learned about men, and situations, like Allende in Chile.  They were determined to design a system where that couldn’t happen.

And they did.  It’s in the Constitution.  To win the Presidency, you must have a majority.  If you can’t get one in the Electoral College, you have to get one in the House, among the top three.   And if  no one can do that, the Vice Presidential election in the Senate, between the top two, decides the election.  By a majority of the Senate.  Always a majority.

If Trump gets a majority on the first ballot, he’s the nominee.   If not, there’s a second ballot.  Some of Trump’s delegates will stick with him, some won’t.  The same thing is true of all the delegates,  no matter who they voted for.  Some are still bound to their candidate, others are not.  If not, they’re free to vote as they see fit.  Nobody owns them.

Trump will lose hundreds of delegates on the second ballot because the delegates who are bound to Trump are not, for the most part, selected by Trump.  They’re selected, by and large, by State Conventions, which are controlled by the delegates who attend them.  And these people hate Trump, and everything he stands for.  And the more he talks about it, the more pissed off these people are going to get.  And don’t try to intimidate them.  It won’t work.

Looks like it might get down to Indiana on May 3rd.  If Trump kicks butt in the Northeast, he’ll still have a shot if he can also win Indiana.  If he loses, his shot at 1237 is gone.  Indiana is a lot like Wisconsin and Ohio, politically.  Solid, experienced and deep Republican organizations.  Gov, Daniels, the Gov. Pence, are outstanding political leaders.  I think Cruz wins Indiana like he won Wisconsin.  So this will be his firewall, if he needs it.

And then there’s California.  Does anybody on the Trump campaign have any idea of what they’re doing in California?  Well, of course, Paul Manafort knows the Rules, so all is well.  Based on what we’ve seen in Colorado and North Dakota, Trump has done no preparation in California.  He’s got nothing going on.

Trump’s right about NATO.   We ought to get out.  What’s in it for us?   What, the Europeans are going to come to our defense?   Of course not.  No one’s going to invade us.  It’s a one way street.  It’s all for their benefit.  If the Germans can’t handle the Russians, it’s not our problem.  We’ll give them a few years to arm themselves, if they want to.  It will be up to them.

Since he’s right about something that big, I’m  not going to call him the Moron anymore.  Donald Trump has the balls to say common sense things that no politician does.  You have to give him credit for that.

There’s a great story in Angel in the Whirlwind about a world class British sniper named Patrick Ferguson.   He’d done shooting exhibitions for the King.   His was one of the first breech loaders, a lightweight weapon of his own design.  Washington was out on some sort of tour of the front and this guy had a clear shot at him.  But he said he didn’t quite feel right pulling the trigger, and he didn’t.  He didn’t know who it was.  He just liked the look of him.

Thank you, Patrick Ferguson, wherever you are.

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