Cruz and Rubio delegates total 716, to Trump’s 755. Who are these Rubio delegates? Will they, in fact, all go to Cruz?
That depends on who chooses them. Take Alaska, where Marco has five. A Juneau Republican, Paulette Simpson, is in charge of recommending a slate which will be presented to the State Convention on April 29th. Five of the delegates on that slate will be Rubio delegates, because, according to the RPA rules, Rubio has only suspended his campaign, but he has not dropped out prior to the State Convention. Once they are actually selected, they become free agents, since Rubio is not actively campaigning. If Paul Manafort disagrees with this interpretation of the RPA Rules, he can make an appeal to the delegates at the State Convention. If he loses that, he can take it up with the Credentials Committee in Cleveland. Gee, maybe I’ll get a chance to argue about the Rules with uber-genius Paul Manafort. Wouldn’t that be fun?
So these delegates will be unbound, as will the twelve Rubio delegates from Oklahoma, and the seventeen Rubio delegates from Minnesota. Let me tell you a little bit about the delegates to the Republican State Conventions in Alaska, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. Almost without exception, these are not Trump people. The overwhelming majority of these people are among those of us who think Donald Trump is a nut. They may be Bush loyalists, or libertarians, or evangelicals,, it doesn’t matter. We all think Trump’s crazy.
So who will these delegates at these State Conventions pick to be Rubio delegates? A hint: no one who would have the slightest chance of ever supporting Trump.
I knew Paulette Simpson by reputation in Alaska. A straight shooter, no funny business. But, if for some odd reason, she puts a Trump sympathizer on as a Rubio delegate, her slate will be challenged on the floor by the Cruz supporters. The Cruz people tried to do this at the North Dakota Convention and it didn’t work, so one Trump delegate slipped through. But Alaska is no North Dakota, and we’ll win that vote if it comes down to it.
I believe the rest of Rubio’s delegates are bound to him in one way or another, but that really doesn’t matter. What matters is who they are, and that’s decided by the people who elect them, and those people all hate Trump. Trump will not get one Rubio delegate, from any State in the Union.
So, if you want to look at it that way, Cruz is only 39 delegates behind. Even if Trump sweeps the Northeast, Cruz will easily do well enough in the eleven remaining states to prevent Trump from getting to 1237. There will be a lot of hype and hoopla in the next two and a half weeks, but that’s the state of the race now.
I have to give Trump credit. He totally ignores Colorado until the last minute, totally screws up at the State Convention, loses 34-0, and comes out ahead in the polls. Because he’s a victim. A victim of his own stupidity, but a victim nonetheless.
So Tim Clark is Trump’s man in California. He talks a good game. I think he’s full of it, but we’ll see. Paul Manafort picked him, and this is his big chance. I think he’s a pretty bright guy, and I don’t envy him the job ahead. I hope they’re paying you well, Tim, because you’re going to earn every nickel of it.
Right now the weather in the Gold Country, where I live, is the best of any time in the year. All the wildflowers have bloomed, and for the next three or four weeks I walk through little fields of flowers. We all have a lot to be thankful for.