Donald Trump is over his head. He doesn’t know what he’s doing, and his whining is a loser’s game. Al Davis of the Oakland Raiders didn’t ever whine. Just win, baby, and you don’t need to whine.
It’s worse than just whining. He insulted every delegate who participated in a State Convention that he lost. All those delegates and alternates from Wyoming, and Colorado and North Dakota and everywhere else resent being called corrupt, for sale, to whoever buys them dinner or pays for their hotel room. If, indeed, anybody did, which I doubt. They’ll all be in Cleveland, circulating at the Convention, and they’ll all be pissed off at Trump for impugning them, their state, and the entire process they went through in order to become delegates. They’ll be anti-Trump ambassadors, along with a whole lot of other people.
To get to 1237 Trump needs unbound delegates. He needs to convince these people that, even though he’s shy of majority, he deserves to be put over the top because he has more delegates than Cruz. Implying that if they don’t, they’ve been bought and paid for is not a winning strategy.
Trump says the RNC better come around or there will be hell to pay in Cleveland. Oh, really? Maybe all the Trump delegates will simultaneously hold their breath until they turn purple, and then roll around the Convention floor together in a new kind of floor demonstration. Or they boo a lot. Or just make fools of themselves by causing disruptions. Good TV maybe, but not the way to win hearts and minds.
Add to that the fact that Trump and his campaign are liars and hypocrites. David Drucker in the WaEx quotes an email from Charles Munoz, Trump’s Nevada State Director, in which he promises lodging and transportation to the Nevada State Convention on May 13th. So why is Trump complaining, in Wyoming and Colorado, about what he himself is doing in Nevada? Make up your mind, Trump, which is it?
You see Paul Manafort actually does know the Rules (all that’s required is an ability to read the English language), and he knows Trump better be in control of that State Convention in Reno or he’s going to get shafted, just as he has been at State Conventions all over the country. The people giving Donald the shaft aren’t Cruz operatives, per se. They’re the Republican Party leaders in each state, and almost all these guys know what they’re doing, they can’t stand Trump, and they’re going to do what they can to stop him. The more he bitches and calls people names the more determined they are. Whine all you want. Those are the Rules.
The Nevada precinct caucuses gave Trump 14, Rubio 7, Cruz 6, Carson 2 and Kasich 1. If Cruz delegates control the Convention the nine Rubio and Carson delegates will be people who are inclined toward Cruz, not Trump. If that’s the case, Cruz will go to Cleveland with 15 delegates, Trump with 14. Gee, I bet the Donald would be pissed off. He won the caucuses, but will wind up losing the state.
These nine delegates will be unbound, and free to vote for whoever they choose, but their preferences won’t be that hard to figure out. The fight for control of the Nevada Convention, and the identity of these nine delegates, is a big test of the legendary skills of Paul Manafort. He got in the game too late to do anything in Colorado or Wyoming. But he’s all in in Nevada. It’s a question of political organization. Let’s see what you’ve got, Paul. If you get hosed in Reno, you’re just a big mouth, like your boss.
If he goes to Cleveland with less than 1237 Trump will lose the nomination to Cruz. He and his cult will be outraged, but it will be too late to mount anything but a token third party run. So maybe they should all have a big rally, and Trump can hold his breath until he turns purple, and roll around on the stage, and the crowd can do likewise. They’ll all feel much better, I’m sure.
A lot of these Trump people won’t vote, but with Clinton as his opponent Cruz can win without them. Many of them don’t normally vote, or are Democrats. Harry Truman lost the segregationist South to Strom Thurmond, and the loony left, in the person of Henry Wallace, also deserted him. He won anyway, against a wishy washy Dewey. By November Clinton will be toxic. She’s corrupt, doesn’t really have solutions to the country’s problems, and is disliked and distrusted by vast swathes of the electorate. Republicans will walk over broken glass to beat her. She’s toast.
We don’t elect, or nominate, Presidents based on a plurality. They tried that in Germany in 1933. It’s not a good idea.