After Nice, Trump’s got a 50-50 shot

I expect Trump’s acceptance speech in Cleveland will propel him into the lead in national polling, and the polling wizards at 538.com will be calling the race a toss up.  Because this speech will include specifics.  He’ll lay out, in some detail, his plans to destroy ISIS, and he will promise an active federal investigation of groups who are targeting police in this country.  And he’ll double down on his call for a moratorium on immigration from the Middle East, and endorse the Gingrich/Reagan Project proposal to screen Muslims for supporting sharia law.

This is what people want to hear.  What, precisely, do you intend to do about all this terrorism, and attacks on police?  Trump’s got an answer.  Clinton doesn’t.  Advantage Trump, big time.

A few months ago Gingrich, a brilliant if erratic man, said he had no idea of what a Trump Presidency would be like, and didn’t think Trump knew either.  It could be a version of the movie Idiocracy.  Or it could be a lot better.  No one knows.  Since, by the end of next week, he’ll be an even bet to win, maybe it’s time to think about how he can be persuaded to be rational.  Mike Pence is a good, if not great, start down that road.  The economic team of Moore, Kudlow & Laffer has apparently got his ear, which is a good thing.  Somebody needs to sit Ivanka and Jared Kushner down and have a very long talk about where they should be directing their substantive discussions with the old man.  They’ve got the influence, and therefor the responsibility to exercise it.  Most of Trump’s political instincts are good.   If he’s got good people around him  there may be hope.

Paul Ryan is the key to Congress, and his connection to Pence is solid, as I understand it.  If Pence is able to assume some of the responsibility for relations with Congress, there could be hope.  I’m not expecting Reagan’s third term, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be a train wreck.  It depends on the Donald, who is unpredictable.  There’s something about that that sticks in my craw, as an American.  Why in hell is the future of my country up to the whims of a 70 year old egomaniac?   Because today’s political class is weak and in large part corrupt and dishonest.

Trump would be a one termer, though he won’t admit it yet.  You don’t want to enter office as a lame duck.  Towards the end of his second term the Gipper’s age started to catch up to him, and Trump’s older than Reagan was.  So, once in, he doesn’t need to worry about reelection.  With him, you don’t know if that’s good or bad.

Mike Pence hopes it’s good.  He’s already thinking about 2020.  I feel like I’m in one of those radical new roller coasters, where they have to cinch you in tight.  It could be a wild ride.

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