The new world order of globalism is dead. Now, it’s Back to Blood, just as Tom Wolfe foresaw in his 2012 novel. The old world order, based on national self interest, is back. First Brexit, then Trump, and on it will go. The center won’t hold.
Nationalism was discredited in WW I, and became anathema after “Nazi” somehow became identified with “nationalism”. Globalism was invented as an alternative to nationalism. The ultimate goal of globalism is border free, with all of us citizens of the world. It was a fantasy, and reality is starting to sink in.
Everyone deplores the phrase “America First”, but no one argues with it. Unless, of course, you don’t like this country, in which case it’s offensive. But the vast majority of Americans are fond of their country, and the idea that we would pursue our own self interest doesn’t seem odd at all. It’s normal. If you’re not for yourself, who will be?
The First World war was a hundred light years ago. The crazy military nationalism of a century ago is, today, an anachronism. If Hitler showed up in Germany today he’d be a national joke. Does anybody really think those German kids today could be ordered to invade France? The world has changed, and we’re stuck in the 20th century.
NATO was formed to keep the Germans down, the Russians out, and the Americans in. The Germans don’t need to be kept down anymore, and it’s up to them to keep the Russians out, and we’re no longer willing to be in. I think those are facts of life, and eventually the generals and arm chair generals are going to have to face them. They may be willing to fight the Russians, but they’re Chiefs, and the Indians won’t follow. Not this time.
If you’re a red blooded American nationalist, you want a Navy that rules the waves, all of them, in every ocean of the world, in concert with our allies. It’s in our national self interest, in spades. So Trump is going to get himself a whole lot of brand new ships, and they will cost a fortune. Add in tax cuts, infrastructure, rising interest costs on the national debt, and a refusal to curb entitlements, and you’ve got one hell of a deficit.
I think we’ll get that 3-4% growth that we need, and we can stop these deficits fairly soon. But for the first two or three years of the Trump administration, I’m looking for massive deficits. Huge. Trump will say he’s priming the pump, and Congress can always be talked into spending money.
There’s a good chance, unfortunately, that we may not get to 34 this year. In which case, we’ll be back at it in January of 2018, for the final push. After a year of Trump deficits, and no end in sight, selling the BBA may be a little easier.