Pete Buttigieg is a rising star in the Democratic primary, propelling himself into the Final Five, with Biden, Warren, Sanders and Bloomberg. This is according to the 538.com polling average, which is now the go-to place for polling. Not only is their model more sophisticated, it’s presented in a format that shows trends over time.
Nobody else is within shouting distance. And Mayor Pete has a great opportunity in front of him. He’s been caught, red handed, at a Salvation Army event, and so he’s being attacked for tolerating bigotry. The Army is Christian, and believe in marriage between a man and woman. So they’re a hate group.
Buttigieg, being gay himself, is certainly sensitive to homophobia. But he knows true Christians aren’t homophobic; they accept him and his partner as they are. Even though the Christian ideal is a heterosexual couple, that’s not a problem for Pete. He’s all about live and let live. The gay lifestyle is all about tolerance, isn’t it?
So in the nexrt debate he needs to step up and defend the Salvation Army. It could be his Sistah Souljah moment. It could be a plea for tolernace, and respect for opposing viewpoints. It could even be a rousing defense of the First Amendment. That’s how you attack intolerance on the left. A gay man taking on the extremes of political correctness would resonate.
Pete and Bloomberg are now political vultures, waiting to feast on the bones of a dying Biden candidacy. As the actual voting gets closer, Democrats are starting to think. And right now they’re thinking that they don’t want another hard leftist like Labor’s Jeremy Corbyn in the UK. Warren is already fading, losing a third of her support in the last two months. Sanders has been steady for six months. His 18% share isn’t going anywhere. His voters are loyal to him, personally. He had a heart attack, and it didn’t matter. But he’s stuck at less than 20%. The people his fellow leftist Warren has lost aren’t going to Bernie. Without them, he’ll never get close to the nomination.
Which leaves nutty old Ukraine Joe. The guy’s running a couple of quarts low, and he’s liable to blow up at any minute. God only knows when or how it’s coming, but he going to go off the rails, big time. Who will take his place as the reasonable, normal candidate, Buttigieg or Bloomberg?
Mayor Pete’s problem is blacks. They don’t like him, and it’s because he’s gay. 70% of blacks think homosexual behavior is a sin. Homosexuality is unacceptable to most African-Americans, especially men. It’s common wisdom in the black community that vulnerable young black boys are disproportionately the victims of predatory white gays. This may or may not be true, but it’s believed, and Buttigieg will pay the price.
Bloomberg’s problem is his money. He’s trying to buy the nomination. Democrats will not put up with a rich old white guy using his wealth to hijack their nomination.
So who’s left? Andrew Yang and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, each at around 3% in the polls. As curious as it sounds, one of them may well emerge as the heir to the Biden vote, when Sleepy Joe self destructs. It will all be a joy to watch.