Why vote?

Is a vote for President a statement of interest? Or is it an expression of approval, or disapproval?

For most Americans, it’s a statement of their self interest.  Every four years the majority of American voters cast a very important vote, one that is taken seriously.  It’s the one vote that really matters.

This man or woman is primarily concerned with their family, and its well being.  They try to figure out which of the two candidates would be better for them personally.  And that’s how they vote.

Americans hate wars, and will vote against them every time.  Beyond that, the average American is concerned with pocketbook, and, to a lesser degree, moral issues.

This means that unless there’s a recession in the next ten months Trump is going to get reelected.  No matter how low his “approval rating” is.

As President, Trump has the means at his disposal to prevent a recession.  Unless, of course, a black swan appears.

Then all bets are off.  So keep a sharp eye out for black swans.