Following this year’s politics means going to a betting website to get the latest odds, and to go to Nate Silver and 538.com. Money doesn’t lie, and while Nate’s a bit of a lib, he doesn’t let that affect him (much).
The money says Trump’s got less than a 60% chance of getting reelected. 538,com says there’s a 40% chance of a brokered Democratic convention. Those two numbers don’t add up. They don’t make sense. If there’s a brokered convention, Trump wins. A lot of the losers at that convention, be they Sanders or Bloomberg voters, are not going to support the winner. And Trump wins.
So that 57.8% chance that the bettors are giving Trump to win is too low. They’re not factoring a brokered convention into their calculus. Over time, Trump should become a prohibitive betting favorite.
Enthusiasm counts in elections. I’m sure Nate has it factored in to his Mysterious Model. Republicans are fired up, and raring to go. The Democrats don’t have a leader yet, and when they get one there will be bad blood in the party.
Back on July 11th of 2019 Nate said the Democratic race all boiled down to the fab five: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigeig and Harris. Klobuchar has taken Harris’ place, but other than that the prediction from seven months ago holds up pretty well. Nate’s a smart guy.
538.com hasn’t discussed the chances of Trump winning. That has to change, eventually. Nate and his gang won’t like it, but they’re going to be honest about it. Trump’s a big favorite, no matter how you look at it.
Trump won’t get cocky, and take a win for granted. He’ll get greedy, and want to win big. Huge, even.
Big enough to bring along a lot of my favorite people, state legislators.