Since 2002 Democrats have waited patiently for their emerging majority. Iron laws of demographics doomed Republicans to minority status. By 2020, the process was supposed to have played out. Rising numbers of minority voters would overwhelm the whites who comprised the bulk of Republican support.
It was all nonsense, and this election proved it. Blacks are no longer automatic Democratic voters, Hispanics are trending Republican, and the fastest growing minority — Asian-Americans — are as well. These new Republican voters think of themselves as normal, hard working, patriotic Americans, not so much as members of an oppressed minority.
20 years ago, Democrats could still claim to be the party of the working man and woman, and this was the key to the “Blue Wall” of upper Midwest states (MI, MN, WI and PA — 56 electoral votes). But they have abandoned these voters, and Republicans can now win them all with a less polarizing candidate than Donald Trump.
Why did so many Republican House and Senate candidates win more votes than President Trump, at the top of the ticket? Was it all election fraud, all across the country? Or was it voters because liked Trump’s policies, and voted for them, but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for him?
Trump has done more for Alaska than any President since statehood. Elections in Alaska are controlled by a Republican Lieutenant Governor, and are as clean as any in the country. How to explain both Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and Representative Don Young, who are solidly pro-Trump, outpolling the President?
Trump wasn’t just a non-politician, he was an anti-politician who enjoyed antagonizing, mocking and belittling his opponents. Politicians don’t do that sort of thing. And Trump was compulsively honest, uttering truths which a politician would avoid. This endeared him to his base, and annoyed a lot of other people. Add his bragging, history of misogyny, and flamboyance, and it was a turn off to many who might have supported him.
If a normal politician, like Vice President Pence, had run instead of Trump, he would have won. Pence could have run on exactly the same platform, and prevailed convincingly. The stage is set in 2024 for a massive Republican win, of such size that it can’t be stolen.
The elections of 2022 will be key. Republicans need to take the House, keep the Senate, and replace the Democratic governors of fraud-prone state like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Minnesota. These new Republican governors, working with their Republican state legislatures, need to reform the election process in their states to prevent cheating in 2024.
If Biden wins, it will be because he’s not Donald Trump. Trump, personally, may be replaced, but his policies have been accepted by the American people. Biden has no claim to an agenda. To the extent he had one, it was rejected when Republicans kept the Senate, and made gains in the House.
Biden will accomplish nothing. Not only will the Senate be against him, his own party is split between socialists and moderates. And he’s a lame duck from the day he’s sworn in. He barely staggered across the finish line this time. He’ll be lucky to be able to finish one term, much less run for another. Because Kamal Harris is such a flaming leftist, she will not inherit the nomination in 2024. She’ll have to fight for it. And that fight will consume a Biden presidency, and tear the Democratic party apart.
Adding to his troubles is a five member majority on the Supreme Court to check any executive action which is unauthorized in the Constitution. And I think this court may have the courage to go on offense, and begin to reverse some of the previous rulings which have perverted our legal system. The area of administrative law is one obvious target. Biden and the Democrats can be put on defense.
You have to back aways, to 1976, for a comparison. Jimmy Carter won because President Ford was Nixon’s Vice President, and had pardoned him for Watergate. So Carter had no mandate, other than to be honest with the American people.
Carter didn’t pick up any Senate seats. Biden looks like he’ll pick up one. Carter gained one House seat. Biden will lose six to ten. Carter was a one term wonder, as will be Biden.
In 2020 we lost a battle. The never ending war of American politics resumes in two short years. We’ll win again.
Fritz Pettyjohn has been an Alaska political consultant for 40 years.