It seems like long ago, but it’s only been eleven years since the last Republican wave election. In 2010, Republicans won seven Senate seats, 63 House seats, six governorships and 20 state legislative chambers. The big issue was Obamacare, a classic case of Democratic overreach.
There was a sign of what was to come from a deep blue state — Massachusetts. In August of 2009 Sen. Ted Kennedy died, and in January of 2010 an unknown Republican, Scott Brown, was elected to replace him. It was a warning to the Democrats, but they ignored it, ramming through Obamacare two months after Brown’s shocking win.
Next month a similar warning may emerge from the bluest state of all, California. If Gov. Gavin Newsom is recalled, it will be the portent of another Republican wave election. The Senate, the House, Governorships and state legislatures will all fall to the Republicans.
Elections are decided by who shows up to vote. Republicans, generally, are angry (about a whole lot of things) and will vote in droves. Democrats, other than the radical fringe, are dispirited. They came out in force in 2020, but only because they hated Trump. He’s not on the ticket in 2022, and, if they’re smart, Republicans in close races will do all they can to distance themselves from a man half the country despises. Not from Trump’s policies, but from him.
Naturally, Gavin Newsom is trying to inject Trump into the recall election. If he succeeds, he’ll motivate enough Democrats to win. If not, he’s toast.
Keep your eyes on California. As it goes, so goes the nation. If we can win in California, we can win anywhere.