The wisdom of our fathers

In France, before their Revolution, the year began on April 1st.  It made sense.  It was near the spring equinox, and the end of the winter season.  A time to plant, and begin the year anew.

Then the fanatics took power in Paris, and decreed the year would now begin on January 1st, near the winter solstice, when the sun begins to shine longer in the northern winter.  It made more sense, from a scientific point of view.

But in the countryside of France, old traditions died hard, and the people still began their year on the first of April.  Because they were old fashioned, they were mocked as April Fools.

But in some sense, they weren’t fools at all, and today really is the beginning of a new year.  It has promise.  Throughout its history, Providence has been kind to this country.  May it continue.

Let’s have another Roaring 20’s

Before electricity, factories ran their machinery using  a central steam boiler, which powered everything through elaborate sets of belts.  If you ran a lathe, its motive power came from a belt, or cable, which wound back to the power source.  It was dangerous and  inefficient.

Then, from 1900 to 1940, electric motors replaced steam.  Each power tool had its own small, efficient, pollution-free motor.  Needless to say, the adoption of electricity as the power source in manufacture led to an explosion of productivity, a vast creation of wealth that we still enjoy today.

Thus, we had one of the most prosperous decades in all of history, the American Roaring 20’s.  Like all business cycles it ended, and became the Great Depression largely as a result of governmental stupidity.  The reaction to the depression was the New Deal political consensus, which lasted until 2016.

Presidents Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge were partly responsible for the Roaring 20’s.  Their low tax, pro-business policies were helpful.  They also severely limited immigration.  By 1924 very few immigrants were being allowed into the country.  This had the effect then, as it would have today, of increasing the bargaining power of the American worker, and of a more widely shared prosperity.

All the stars have aligned for another decade of powerful economic growth, another, 21st century, Roaring 20’s.  Trump, like Harding/Coolidge, is ferociously pro-business.  He wants jobs, and for that he needs business to expand, and hire.  He wants the benefits of all this wealth creation to be shared with the working men and women of America.

Trump’s efforts have a mighty wind at their back, as the wizardry of Silicon Valley permeates every business in America, large or small.  This productivity explosion may well prove to be greater than steam to electricity.  It could last for decades.

If we let it.  The government, under the wrong Democratic President, could screw this all up.  The Democratic nominee will have pledged to enact a program that would end all this magnificent progress.

So if you care about the future of this country, you shouldn’t just vote for Trump.  You should work for him.

 

 

America first, on the diamond

Normally I consume a lot of news, but not so much lately.  I haven’t really followed Russiagate, since it was  obviously fake news.  And every other story seemed to be about Comey/Rosenstein/Mueller/Clapper/Brennan and on and on and on.  To fill my day I’ve been forced to start reading the Aubrey/Maturin novels for maybe the fourth time.

But in half an hour it’s first pitch in a Yankees-Orioles game, and for the next six months we can watch real men play a real, American game.  A game that Babe Ruth played, and would be familiar with.  Baseball is the sporting version of America First.

Why the smart money is on Trump

There are no iron laws in politics, but a few things come close.  Such as, prosperity elects Presidents.  If come election day, voters feel they’re better off than they were, and think they’re likely to get better, incumbent Presidents win.  Even if they had nothing to do with it.

I am firmly convinced the economy will be humming in November of 2020.  Barring, of course, acts of God or acts of war.  Trump can’t interfere with the Lord, but he can certainly keep us out of war, and he will.  And the tax regime he installed, the regulatory relief he’s providing, and the international markets he’s opening are all powerful stimulants.  The Federal Reserve isn’t going to rain on this parade, especially not with Stephen Moore joining it.  Animal spirits are flowing.  There’s a lot of rational exuberance.  If you ever wanted to go into business, now would be the time to do it.

This all makes a pretty economic pie, and there’s a big scoop of ice cream to top it off.  It’s something Trump had nothing to do with.  It’s the best economic news of all.  Productivity is rising!   James Pethokoukis spells it all out in The Week.

This is profoundly good news.  It means all the creativity of Silicon Valley is infiltrating American business, and the long term consequences could be as drastic as the switch form muscle to steam, and from steam to electricity.  It’s that big.

All this means there’s going to be 3% economic growth in 2020, maybe 4%. And that means Trump is reelected.

Dame Fortune smiles, again, on Donald Trump.

[the foregoing appears in American Thinker]

 

That bewildering black swan, Donald Trump

They shot at the king, but they didn’t kill him.  And because they didn’t destroy him, they only made him stronger.  If, a year from now, the economy is robust, Trump will be reelected in an historic landslide.  His enemies have played right into his hands.

This is all because of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), an especially virulent form of the psychiatric disorder known as cognitive dissonance.  If you know, for absolutely certain  —  as an article of faith  —  that something is true, and evidence in contradiction of this truth emerges, the psychic toll can be severe.  Experts say stems from the use of degenerate Meta Probability.

So it is with Donald Trump and his critics.  I was one of those critics myself, and suffered severely when he won the Republican nomination.  I knew Donald Trump could never win a Presidential election, for all kinds of reasons.  Even though his opponent was one of the worst political candidates in our history, I knew he still couldn’t win.  He never read a book, had the attention span of a gnat, was a notorious womanizer, had no apparent political convictions, and was a flim flam artist of a businessman.  What kind of a guy is associated with Trump University, for God’s sake?

All the smart people, liberal and conservative, agreed, from National Review to the Wall Street Journal, from the New York Times to the Washington Post.  And then he won.  What in the hell happened?  How was this possible?  How could we explain to our friends, colleagues and families that we were wrong?

Hillary suffered a virtual nervous breakdown, and concocted the Russia collusion theory.  The media flocked to this fantasy, and the Mueller fiasco began.   After two years, this long national nightmare is over.

God bless America, and God Bless President Trump.

(A lightly edited version of this article is in the American Thinker.)