You can’t hide your lyin’ eyes

Everybody’s got a B.S. detector, and we’ll all have ours tuned to the highest pitch Monday night.  The way our brains are wired, we take in a lot more information from our eyes than from our ears.  People can see better than they can listen.  And that’s why Trump will win the debate.

Clinton may out talk him or win more debate points.  Carter may have “won” his debate with the Gipper on that score.  But Reagan came across as a bigger man, who was at ease with himself, and had the best interest of the country at heart.  Trump’s no Reagan, to say the least, but all he’s got to do is look like a man who knows what he’s doing, and not fly off the handle, and he’ll win.  Because he’s going against a woman who never learned her husband’s most valuable skill.  Bill can lie through his teeth, with conviction, and sincerity.  It’s a gift, and she doesn’t have it.

Obama’s veto of the 9-11 bill, which allows lawsuits against the Saudis, is one of the few smart and principled things he’s done, and naturally the clowns in Congress want to override his veto.  Shameless political whores, all of them.  Congress, not the Democratic Party, is the most corrupt institution in this country.  Only Article V can overcome them.  At some point, Vice President Pence will get Trump to see this.  And if President Trump were to get behind it, it would cement his place in history.  The first use, by the States, of their Article V power would be a watershed event in our political history.  It would mean nothing less than a return to Constitutionalism, after 100 years of losing it.  And Trump could take credit.

Amy Demboski is an Anchorage Assemblywoman, and has a talk show on a small station in the Matsu Valley, KVNT.  She did a little digging in Alaska Public Office Commission and FEC reports, and she found out that all the thieves who donate to Begich also donate to Murkowski.  Surprise, surprise!  So there was no way Begich was going to run against her in a write in.  The money had all been committed to her.  If you want to listen to her rattle on about it for an hour and a half, here’s the link.

She needs to do more than talk about it on her little talk show.  She needs to spread the word, across the State.  Murkowski’s no more of a Republican conservative than Mark Begich.  They’re two peas in a pod, or, better yet, two sucklings on the same sow.  I’d like to write a country and western song, and call it “Two little pigs, side by side, sucking away for all they’re worth.”

The organizer of this suck fest is a guy named Jim Lottsfeldt, who I gather Anchorage Mayor, and Begich buddy, Ethan Berkowitz has hired as a Municipal lobbyist.  A pure political payoff.  The taxpayers of Anchorage are paying the wages of the most dangerous man in Alaska politics today.  He’s a Murkowski contributor, of course, and she owes him for all the union money she’s got, which is a ton.

This guy’s got the Mayor and Assembly of Anchorage in his pocket, and a United States Senator to boot.  I think he may be tied to Gov. Walker as well, but I’m not sure.  He’s definitely making a move to control the Alaska Legislature.  He doesn’t need a majority of Democrats.  There are enough Republican whores in the State Legislature who will leave their own, majority, caucus, and form a bipartisan coalition with the Democrats.  It’s happened time and again in Alaska, and he’s trying to set it up in this election by electing a union boss named Vince Beltrami to the State Senate.  I’m going to get ahold of whoever he’s running against and help them out.  I know a few things about politics in Alaska.

Rush Limbaugh went off on Murkowski last week.  Demboski posted it in her Face book page, here.  She apparently went on CBS News with Perky Katie Couric and made a complete fool of herself, as you would expect, and Rush saw it, and pounced.  He’s pretty hard on her.  You ought to watch.

The leaves are turning and the days shorten.  Harvest time is coming.  Time to sharpen your scythe.

Don’t worry, be happy.

This election shouldn’t be close.  Both Clinton and Trump should be losing badly, but one of them will win, and I think it’s Trump.  At just the right time, his tone is changing.  I don’t see a lot of him, but he seems to be mellowing a bit, which he must do.  People in this country are royally pissed off, but the Deciders are uncomfortable with a President who’s all pissed off.  The Ones Who Will Decide want to vote for someone, not just against the other guy.  They want to vote for a Happy Warrior, not a man waving a sword.

Trump should be a  happy camper right now.  He’s close to pulling off the greatest political coup in American history.  Nobody’s ever done it before, though plenty have tried, right back to Aaron Burr trying to steal the election from Thomas Jefferson.  Trump might pull it off, and he has every right to take a lot of satisfaction from it.  This ought to put him in a good mood Monday night, and if he comes across as not such a bad guy, after all, he’ll win.  Not much of a challenge, after what he’s been through.

Over at 538.com Aaron Bycoffe has devised The Snake, a very cool way to look at the election.  Bravo, Aaron.  It shows Clinton winning New Hampshire, and the election, with 272 EV’s.  After NH, her next weakest states are Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  I really don’t know much about NH and PA, but these other states should go for Trump, in the end.

Coloradans are cool, and with it, and Clinton is so 20th Century.  Colorado Democrats are Bernie Bros, and can’t stand Clinton.  They’ll vote for Johnson (the tongue poker!) or Stein, and give the State to Trump.  Add in conservative rural Colorado, and he’s home free.

Michigan has a successful Republican Governor, a Republican State Legislature, and four years ago became the 24th state in the union to pass a right to work law.  Don’t tell me it’s a blue state.  It’s purple, and it could easily go to Trump, on hatred of NAFTA alone.  There’s a lot of racial undercurrent in Michigan, and these riots in Charlotte are helping Trump.  Sincere thanks, once more, to the irreplaceable George Soros, and his goons at BLM.  Muchas gracias.

And, in the end, I’ll be surprised if Trump doesn’t win Wisconsin, especially after the Cruz endorsement.  There are a lot of popular Republicans in Wisconsin, like Gov. Scott Walker, and they’ve accomplished a lot for the people of Wisconsin.  All the fights he had with the unions produced tangible benefits for the people of Wisconsin, and they know it.  Expect a Trump swing through Wisconsin, joined by Walker, Ryan and Priebus.  It should win it for him, and with it, the Electoral College, and the Presidency.

It’s outlandish, but true.  Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States.  This thought doesn’t give me any particular pleasure, but it does have its bright side.  In Alaska, Trump voters are Miller voters, and this could be the end of the Stevens-Murkowski political machine.

I’ve been thinking about BAAM, and am going to hold off for a while.  Maybe voters in Alaska already know all this stuff about Murkowski, and don’t need to be reminded.  Just more negativity.  So I’m going to look on the bright side, and think about all the wonderful things that will happen in Alaska when the last of this gang of thieves is run out of public office.

I don’t really count Rep. Don Young as one of them, maybe because I like Don personally.  He’s just a goofball school teacher from the interior.  He came to Alaska from northern California to get a teaching job in the Bush.  You can make good money, right out of college, teaching school in these remote Alaska Native villages.  Don went to Fort Yukon, right in the middle of the real Alaska, and married a Native gal, to whom he was devoted for her entire life.  She was a very sweet woman.  They had kids, and a normal family life.  Don was a hard core Republican, and was in the State Legislature when the Republicans needed a sacrificial lamb to offer in the 1972 Congressional race.  Nick Begich was the Democratic incumbent, and this guy was good, a rising star in the national Democratic Party.  Don didn’t have a prayer, but he was a good sport, and was ready to take one for the team.

Begich and Hale Boggs went down in the Chugach two weeks before the election, and everyone knew they were gone.  Begich won easily, but Don managed to squeak out a win in the special election to replace him, and he’s been there ever since.  His wife died recently, and I guess being a Congressman gives him something to do in his grief.

I think this will have to be Don’s last term, and Alaska Republicans need to start thinking about who is going to replace him.

 

How to handle a woman

Carefully, very carefully, if she’s your political opponent.   You simply can’t treat a woman they way you would a man.  Nobody likes to see a man beat up on a woman, no matter how much she deserves it.

Trump saw insult comedian Don Rickles a few too many times, and he seems to enjoy insulting people.  If he insults Hillary Clinton, no matter how much she deserves it, it will cost him, big time.  The worst thing he’s done in his entire campaign was to disparage the Gold Star mother of Capt. Khan.  That still has not been forgotten, or forgiven.  If he veers in that direction Monday night he’ll lose it.  You’ve got to be cool, like Reagan, and his “there you go again” line.

No one’s ever seen Trump calm.  That would shock the political world.  A subdued version of Donald Trump could win the election, if such a thing exists.

This thing is better than the Super Bowl!

My grey matter has been grinding away, and I finally think I’ve got this Murkowski thing all figured out.  Not to brag on it, but it’s maybe the best shot I’ve taken in my political career, which goes back 38 years, to the 1978 Alaska Governor’s race.  I can’t figure out how she can respond, and I’m a hell of a lot smarter than she is.  All I can say is, at around 10:00 p.m. Pacific, November 3rd, tune in to the U. S. Senate debate in Alaska.  That’s when you do the hit, in front of the whole State.

I have a vengeful streak in me, and I admit it.  If you don’t have one, you don’t belong in politics.   Babbie and I had a wonderful life in Alaska, and I have no regrets for the 27 years we spent there.  But I feel like Marlon Brando in “On the Waterfront”.   I could have been a contender.  But the Murkowskis made sure that never happened.

They not only lied to me, they lied to a lot of people, like State Senator Johne Binkley of Fairbanks, who was much closer to the Murkowskis than I was.  When Frank ran for Governor in 2002 Binkley agreed to support him, on the condition that he would be appointed to serve out the term, or at least be strongly considered.  Frank had a list of ten that he was supposedly picking from, which included Binkley.  The brightest, most qualified people in the State.  But after he’d thought about it for a while, it occurred to him that the person who was actually best for the job was his mentally challenged daughter.  Binkley was so pissed off that he ran against Frank in the 2006 Republican primary, and beat him.  But they were both beat by this peppy gal from Wasilla.

On the radio this morning Begich was being coy about maybe running for Governor in 2018, as a way to prepare for the 2020 Senate rematch with New Dan Sullivan.  I hope he does.  We can always revive BAAMB.  From what I can tell Original Dan Sullivan, or Mayor Dan, is the best Republican candidate for Governor, and he purportedly wants to run.  I’d look forward to working for him.  I knew his father, George, who was a great Alaskan.

My Uncle Fritz knew George Sullivan when he was the U.S. Marshall in Valdez after the war.  Uncle Fritz really liked him.  He called him Sully.

Sometimes a man needs time with his family

Former Senator Mark Begich just announced he will not be running on 650 KENI’s Rick Rydell Show.  He referenced this group, Bipartisan Alaskans Against Mark Begich, out of California, that has no further reason for existence.  I’m taking him at his word, and will file FEC Form 3-X later this morning to dissolve BAAMB.

Bipartisan Alaskans Against Murkowski, on the other hand, is coming together nicely.  An EIN, a bank account, and a proposed budget are all in the works, along with planning for the first expenditure.

Surprisingly, Begich did not come out and endorse Independent Margaret Stock.  He only praised Joe Miller’s improvement as a candidate.  Curious.  Rydell had mentioned some polling that Begich supposedly had access to, but didn’t ask him about it, and Begich didn’t talk about.  Again, curious.  If there was polling that made Begich’s chances look good, he would have mentioned it.  That way he could play the martyr, giving up a shot at the Senate, because he needs to spend time with his family.  So I suspect those poll numbers didn’t look so hot for him.

The worm turns.

There’s something happening here

What it is, is exactly clear.  Mark Begich is going on  my old radio station, 650 KENI, this morning at 8:00 a.m. Alaska time to announce he will not be running for the U.S. Senate as a write in.  He will urge all his fellow Democrats, and the Independents who elected him to the Senate in 2008, to support the Independent, Margaret Stock.

Now the road will be open for BAAM.

I hope to meet a guy in Mokelumne Hill today to talk about running for the California Assembly as a Libertarian.  He’s an ambitious politician, and if he’s smart enough to be pro-2nd Amendment, he could win.  If he agrees, it will make it easier to line up a candidate in Northwest California.