Nate Silver’s predictions

Following this year’s politics means going to a betting website to get the latest odds, and to go to Nate Silver and 538.com.  Money doesn’t lie, and while Nate’s a bit of a lib, he doesn’t let that affect him (much).

The money says Trump’s got less than a 60% chance of getting reelected.  538,com says there’s a 40% chance of a brokered Democratic convention.  Those two numbers don’t add up.  They don’t make sense.  If there’s a brokered convention, Trump wins.  A lot of the losers at that convention, be they Sanders or Bloomberg voters, are not going to support the winner.  And Trump wins.

So that 57.8% chance that the bettors are giving Trump to win is too low.  They’re not factoring a brokered convention into their calculus.  Over time, Trump should become a prohibitive betting favorite.

Enthusiasm counts in elections.  I’m sure Nate has it factored in to his Mysterious Model.  Republicans are fired up, and raring to go.  The Democrats don’t have a leader yet, and when they get one there will be bad blood in the party.

Back on July 11th of 2019 Nate said the Democratic race all boiled down to the fab five: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigeig and Harris.  Klobuchar has taken Harris’ place, but other than that the prediction from seven months ago holds up pretty well.  Nate’s a smart guy.

538.com hasn’t discussed the chances of Trump winning.  That has to change, eventually.  Nate and his gang won’t like it, but they’re going to be honest about it.  Trump’s a big favorite, no matter how you look at it.

Trump won’t get cocky, and take a win for granted.  He’ll get greedy, and want to win  big.  Huge, even.

Big enough to bring along a lot of my favorite people, state legislators.

 

Republicans for Sanders

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are the two wings of the Democratic party.  Clinton is the Democratic establishment, consisting of corrupt corporatists who sacrifice American workers for globalism and their corporate masters.  Because the Clintons, the Democratic leadership in Congress, CNN, and MSNBC all want to stop Bernie, I want to help him.  He’s not a globalist, or the tool of international big business.  He’s the Anti-Clinton.

If you’re a Republican, there’s a chance you could help Bernie defeat Clintonism.  South Carolina votes on February 29th, followed three days later by Super Tuesday, with votes in, among others, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Minnesota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Vermont.  If you live in one of these states you can vote for Bernie in the primary, even though you’re a Republican.

On Monday in New Hampshire President Trump suggested his audience vote for the Democrat who would be the easiest for him to beat.  But I’m not advocating for Sanders because I think he’d lose to Trump.  I’m supporting him because most of his most powerful enemies are my enemies as well.

My enemy’s enemy is my friend.

The other reason to vote for Sanders is to stop Buttigeig.  He’s the new version of Bill Clinton.  Bright, charming, pedigreed and glib, he hides his real agenda behind an eager, smiling face.  Like Clinton, he’s a snake, a fork tongued phony.  Stopping Buttigeig is important, and Bernie can do it, and win black votes doing it.  As black journalist Elie Mystal explains in the Nation, blacks really don’t like Buttigieg.  Clinton knew blacks well all his life, and could relate to them.  White bread Mayor Pete doesn’t know how.

I live in California, so I have to change my registration to voter for Bernie on March 3rd.  Since there really isn’t a Republican Party of California, it will be well worth doing.

(The foregoing is in today’s American Thinker)

It’s Bernie or Bloomberg

You give any competent political professional an unlimited budget, and he can run enough attack ads to do serious damage to a political opponent.  Mike Bloomberg isn’t just rich, he’s smart.  He earned that money.  And he’ll hire the finest political assassins available.

Bloomberg is 77, and he intends to give away half his wealth, and has already given $8 billion.  There is no limit to what he can spend.  And his Democratic rivals will soon find themselves under assault.

This isn’t “dirty politics”.  Everything in these ads is going to be true.  Personal attacks, like Pocahontas, will be off limits.  The truth is all the ammunition you need.  Skillfully rendered, of course.

Biden is toast, so nothing need be done with him.  The easy mark will be Buttigieg.  He’s really got no business running for President, and the former mayor of New York City can easily contrast himself with the thirty-something former mayor of South Bend.

Warren will be next.  Her platform is ludicrous, and can be characterized as a reckless assault on the economic well being of the country.  Proposed by a creature of the Harvard faculty lounge.  Out of touch, and uninformed.

Bernie will be the last, and in some ways the easiest target.  At that point we’ll find out if the Democratic nomination can be bought by a New York billionaire.

I think not, and Bernie’s the nominee.

 

Conservatives, liberals and the invention of beer

For most of the 1990’s I wrote a biweekly column for the Anchorage Daily News.  My best effort was an analysis of the political impact of the invention of beer.  New research had just been published showing that ancient man invented beer 20,000 years ago.  This gave me the idea of imagining the political impact of the discovery.  The old issues of the Daily News aren’t online, but here’s a link to an Australian blog that put it on the internet.

A lot of people were inspired by my article, and wrote versions of their own, some of which went viral.  It’s flattering, but I’m never given any credit.  So I’m taking it.

Bernie bros and the Goldwater guys

I identify with the Bernie bros, because I was a Goldwater guy back in 1964.  Barry, like Bernie, was more than a presidential candidate.  He was a leader of a political movement.  I was a movement conservative, and the movement was what mattered.  We knew we couldn’t beat Johnson, but no Republican was going to beat the political heir of the martyred John F. Kennedy less than a year after his assassination.

To us, that really didn’t matter.  We were in it for the long haul.  Not just one election cycle.  As a movement, our goal was to take the Republican party away from the fat cat, East Coast, Wall Street establishment.

Sound familiar?  That’s exactly what the Bernie bros want to do.  The Clinton/Obama/Biden Democratic party, the Congressional and establishment Democratic party, is thoroughly corrupt.

Bernie’s not corrupt.  He’s an idealist, a true believer.  And that’s why he’s going to win the nomination, and take over his party.

Just like my first and favorite political hero, the great Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona did, back in 1964.  The man who set the stage for the Reagan Revolution.  The Revolution that Trump is only now bringing to fruition.

Maybe 56 years from now, we’ll get a President to enact Bernie’s agenda.  I sure as hell won’t be around to see it.  But some of the Bernie bros would.