The end begins

The recent turmoil in the stock market is a sign of things to come.  Investors have realized no one in Washington cares about debt.  The Republicans have caved, and our reckless deficit spending will only end when the market leaves no alternative.

When we get to that tipping point  — when interest and inflation finally spike  — the politicians will, at last, be forced to act.  They will have lost the confidence of the market, and they will have to win it back.

What is the alternative to draconian cuts and massive tax increases?  A planned, multi-year downward ratcheting of deficits, to the eventual point of a balanced budget.  But to convince a skeptical market that such a plan will actually be implemented, it must be set in stone, in the Constitution.

The role of the President in Article V of the Constitution has seldom been considered, because he has no formal role to play.  But, in point of fact, no 3/4 amendment ratification can be achieved without the political support of the most powerful and influential politician in the country  — the President.

Since he has a poltical veto, the President can largely dictate the outline of any balanced budget amendment coming from an Article V Convention of States.  President Trump can have the amendment he wants.  The actual implementation of the amendment can be timed to suit his needs.

This is Trump’s economy, and the market will force his hand.  When that time comes, he can turn to the States, and their power under Article V, to save the country.

Know when to walk away

Like Nixon went to China, Trump wants to give at least 1.8 million illegals a path to citizenship.  Nixon’s reputation as a fierce anti-communist protected his right flank, just as Trump’s reputation as an immigrant hawk is protecting him.  The Democrats in Congress have no protection on their left flank.  The Bernie Sanders left doesn’t trust them.

I think this means Trump can offer the Democrats a very reasonable compromise, one which they can’t accept.

So that’s what the November election must be about.  A common sense compromise, rejected by the activist left of the Democratic Party.  That’s what’s on the table.

Trump has all the cards, and he’s playing them for all they’re worth.  As a student of politics, I watch with increasing admiration.

One reason I didn’t support Trump is that I wasn’t sure what he really stood for.  Now I know.  He’s the first honest to God conservative in a hundred years with the opportuntiy of actually enacting the conservative agenda.

We haven’t had a President like him since Calvin Coolidge.

The rotting timbers of S. S. Democrat

The supporting structures of leftism are in various stages of disrepair, and the good ship Democrat is in trouble.  Virtually every American institution on the left is in decline.  The future looks bright ahead.

  1. The MSM is in losing its influence, and the American people are finding alternatives.  Their ability to control the narrative is weakening.
  2. The Democratic Party is the party of by and for the government.  Trump is in the process of shrinking it.  He has a long way to go, in a target rich environment.
  3. The federal judiciary, the source of so much recent mischief, is gradually being transformed.  Justice Kennedy, the swing moderate on the Supreme Court, may not retire until 2019, but he’s on his way out.  Justice Ginsberg is feeble, Breyer is old, and Sotomayor may have health issues.  Before Trump’s term is up, he will be able to nominate another Gorsuch, or even two, giving strong constitutional conservatives control over the judiciary for a generation.
  4. Unions are on their last legs, and their only strongholds, public employee’s unions, are being undermined in state legislatures and in the courts.  The traditional labor union is obsolete.
  5. Universities are becoming dinosaurs.  They use teaching techniques which were devised in 15th century Italy, and the internet revolution will make them irrelevant.
  6. Hollywood and the entertainment industry (including the NFL) is losing its influence as it beclowns itself.  Their hysterical extremism is a turn off.
  7. The FBI and the Justice Department are stacked with political activists, ever alert to the interests of the Democratic Party, who may at last be outed.
  8. Anti-abortion extremism is costing Democrats the support of people in the mushy middle on this issue.
  9. Tax and spend blue states are going to take a serious hit with the loss of tax deductions.  Frugal red states will enjoy the benefit, and the growth.
  10. American Jews who care about Israel will gravitate away from the Democrats.  (See Alan Dershowitz, disgusted with pictures of Obama and Farrakhan.)
  11. The immigration chain is being broken.  More Hispanics are identifying as white.  And Asian immigrants are taking a second look at the party of Nikki Haley.

Add all that to the new Monmouth poll showing the D’s with an insignificant two point lead in the generic ballot, along with the continued roll out of business expansion and job growth, and 2018 doesn’t look that bad.

What Trump won’t say

He won’t say the 2017 federal deficit was $666 billion, or that the national debt is $20.6 trillion.  He won’t say, as he did on April 10, 2015, that when the debt reaches $24 trillion, we will have hit “the magic number”, as he called it.  The point of no return.  This is the point at which, in his words, “We’re going to end up being another Greece.”

We’re going to be approaching that magic number in Trump’s first term, and if something drastic isn’t done, it will be on us soon thereafter.  This is Trump’s economy, and if it goes the way of Greece it will be on him.  He’s an extremely intelligent man.  He understands all this better than we do, and he knows, at some point, he must address this problem.

Even if the Republicans keep control of the House, it will be with a diminished majority, one which is even less capable of taking on entitlements and the deficit.  If the Democrats win the House, nothing will get done.  We’ll have two years of siege warfare.

Either way, Trump is unlikely to get big legislative victories from the next Congress.  How, then, can he avoid reaching that $24 trillion point of no return?

He asks the state legislators of the country (specifically those in  Virginia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Minnesota, Montana and Idaho) to call an Article V Convention of States, for the purpose of proposing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

He can write the amendment.  The Convention will be controlled by Republican state legislators who will look to him for guidance.

To those who say the amendment will be ignored by Congress, Trump can say, as President, I will enforce it.  To those who say there will be some sort of rogue or runaway Convention he can say, “Not on my watch.”  As President he would have the political power to prevent any such thing.

So when he runs for reelection, it can be on peace, prosperity, and a permanent solution to the existential threat of government debt —  the 28th Amendment.

And, in an adjustment to the balance of power in our Constitutional system, he will have demonstrated how a President can use Article V to control Congress.

The telltale tell

It’s the 10 year Treasury rate, which is up to 2.7%.  Four months ago it was at 2.06%.

In other words, the cost to the government of borrowing money has increased around 30% since September.  When the rate gets above 3%, which might not be long, it will start to have a serious negative effect on the market, and thus on the fortunes of Trump and the Republicans.

Interest rates rise in anticipation of inflation, which seems inevitable, given the onslaught of federal spending.  Rising interest rates and higher inflation will force Trump to deal with the problem of chronic trillion dollar deficits and an exploding national debt.  Something will have to be done.

But Congress won’t do it.  Congress is a hopelessly corrupt and broken institution, at least as far as spending restraint is concerned.  So what can Trump do?

He can write a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, setting forth a long term path to financial stability, and get it proposed for ratification by an Article V Convention.  He can campaign for, and win, ratification of the 28th Amendment to the united States Constitution.   He can call it the Trump Amendment, if he wants.

This solves a policy problem, and it solves a political problem as well.  A twofer, the very best kind of political initiative.