Month: January 2019

Webster’s says a wall is a work or structure intended for defense or security.  A fence is an enclosing barrier.  Wall is Anglo-Saxon, fence is French.  They’re two words for essentially the same thing, one derived from German, one Latin.  It’s like bit-morsel, or wish-desire, or room-chamber.  They’re basically the same thing, expressed differently.

Walls, shmalls.  We want border security.  We want illegals kept out of this country.  The Democrats say that’s what they want as well.

Let’s see what they’ve got, and work from there.

How people answer that question will decide the 2020 election.  Not, how’s the country doing.  How are you doing?

With his tax cuts, deregulation and trade reforms Trump has set the stage for an economic boom, just as we had under Reagan in the 80’s.  Our labor may be expensive, but our energy is cheap, and manufacturing will return to our shores.  The working men and women of America, the new base of Trump’s Republican Party, will see their wages rise.  Cutting off the flow of cheap illegal immigrant labor will especially help black and latino workers.

The Democrats want more government.  They’re the government party.  But Americans in the private sector don’t trust the government, and want it out of their lives.  Unless you identify as a persecuted minority, big government doesn’t sell.

Since the Democratic candidate will want increased taxes and a war on Wall Street, the big money boys will have nowhere to go.  A third, independent candidate would give them someone to support.  Since giant egos are involved (hell, I’m richer and smarter than that stupid Trump!) I expect one of them won’t be able to resist the temptation to insert himself as a third choice, assuring Trump’s reelection.

If you don’t self-identify as a black, or gay, or a woman, but as an American, you’ll vote for Trump not only because you’re better off.  But also because you know your country is better off too.

 

On election day, the Great Wall Shutdown of 2019 will be a hazy memory.  What was it all about?  Oh, yes, Trump wanted a border wall, and he shut down the government trying to get it.  And in November of 2020, what will people think of a barrier on our southern border?  If we have one, it will be working.  If we don’t, the situation at the border will be a national disgrace.

So, will Trump pay a political price for this shutdown?  Will Lou Dobbs and Ann Coulter mount a primary challenge from the right?  His base trusts Trump.  They know he’s doing a fabulous job under extreme duress.  And they love him for it.  He’s doing all a man can do.

Pelosi can strut and fret her hour upon the stage, but her days are numbered.  She’s a lame duck, and blind to it.  In 2020 a new leader in the Democratic Caucus will be elected, and the maneuvering has already begun.  I know this because I know how legislators think.  I was one.  They’re always looking ahead, to the next leadership election.  A lot of Democrats would love to be Speaker of the House.  Pelosi can’t win again.  She’s old, and weak.

There will be a new Majority Leader as well, and the jostling for that great plum has begun as well.  Current leader Steny Hoyer will be 80 this year, and he’s got to go.

Along with the Democratic Presidential melee, the House Democrats will offer great fun in the months ahead.  Who will AOC and the other radicals support?  Will their next Speaker be a Bernie Sanders socialist?

In the mean time, the economy is booming, and Trump is bringing home the troops.  The timing of the next election will suit Donald J. Trump just fine.

 

It was all kabuki.

The shutdown hurt Trump’s approval, but it was a price worth paying.  During its course, the President offered to negotiate a comprehensive reform of our broken immigration system.  It’s possible such a reform, even if only incremental, can now be hammered out with Congress.  If it is, it would be another major domestic achievement for Trump.

If not, I think he’ll declare an emergency, which will immediately be enjoined by a federal district judge in the 9th Circuit.  This would mean appellate relief could only be obtained from the Supreme Court.  Months will drag  by.

And all the while, the crisis at the border will continue.  It may even intensify, as would-be immigrants realize that the border may be sealed in the near future.  They’ll want to come while they still can.

Border security, along with peace and prosperity, is going to reelect Donald Trump.  This issue has dominated the news for five weeks, with three or more to come.  This is the subject on which the nation is now paying attention.  The first two months of the new Democratic majority will be tied up on immigration.  Democratic priorities languish.

While there are some sensible Democrats, the leader of the party, Pelosi, is a nut.  She’s an embarrassment.  The press hides it, but the more exposure she gets, the worse it will be for her.  She’s 78, and it’s showing, badly.

Trump vs. Pelosi, on immigration.  It’s not a fair fight.

 

 

That’s what’s on offer.  Trump wants not just a wall, but a complete overhaul of our immigration laws.  In other words, “comprehensive immigration reform.”

This is a deal the Democrats can’t resist.  It solves DACA, which is their most urgent priority.  It’s essentially slow motion amnesty, but Trump will get his border security, and we won’t be overwhelmed by illegals again.  It’s a win-win.  This is like Nixon-to-China.  Only some one with the credibility of Trump can sell this to his base.

There are Democrats who understand this, and I think a deal is coming.

The only problem for the D’s is that this is an unalloyed triumph for President Trump.  Will they let their hatred for Trump stop them from doing right?  That’s the question.