Am I fool number one, or am I fool number two?

The first entry is Carlos Lozada of the WaPo, who manfully waded through eight (8!) books “authored” by Trump.  This heroic effort apparently disabled his frontal cortex, since he overlooked some juicy political nuggets in plain sight.

As I’ve mentioned, Trump is a coxcomb, and a particularly vile one at that.  While this certainly does not disqualify him from the Presidency, it’s something that many of his followers would find very disturbing.  He brags about how the women contestants on his reality show lusted for his manly touch.  He was a prodigious adulterer, and the list of the married women he has bedded is one of his proudest achievements.  He assures of this, and while being coy about the identities of all the married women who have succumbed to his charms, he guarantees that, if we did know who they are, his book would be a huge best seller.  He wants us to know that his libido still runs strong, so much so that his own daughter is so attractive to him that he would date her if they weren’t related.

Though he tells us he’s a Christian (with a family Bible to prove it, by gosh!) he has never sought forgiveness, for he has never felt the need.  Seducing other men’s wives is just sport, really.  Maybe you have to be from Manhattan to understand.

Lozada fails to mention any of this in his eight book review.

The second entry is a surprise, to me.  In the early 90’s R. Emmett “Bob” Tyrrell Jr.’s American Spectator magazine was hot.  David Brock’s piece on Billy Jeff and the Bimbos led to the Paula Jones lawsuit, which in turn led to Monica Lewinsky.  I had him on my radio show in Anchorage.  He started the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy, and I wanted to join.  So I read his capitulation to the Trump Cult with dismay.

Emmett the Apostate begins by calling into question the political savvy of the Gang of 22 at NRO.  He admits they’re some fine writers, and thinkers, and good people.  They just don’t understand how politics really works.  Not like he does.  They don’t have his “credential.”  What he has that they don’t isn’t entirely clear.

He’s grateful for Trump accomplishing what he has been attempting in vain for 23 years  — getting the media to at long last have a discussion about not only B.J.’s sexual predations, but Hillary’s enabling.  I am grateful as well, but can’t quite make out why this qualifies the Donald for the Presidency.  If you’ve been beating a silent drum for a quarter century I guess you go a little overboard on the gratitude.

I think there’s an analogy to be drawn between investing and political forecasting.  A hot stock can get bid up to a price that can’t be justified, rationally.  But it will keep going up, as long as there is a greater fool than the last.  Trump’s a hot stock right now, and Tyrrell may have bought at the absolute top of the market.  We’ll find out Monday night.  But a Trump win would do more than give him the Big Mo.  It could also start the serious business of actually putting him down, which hasn’t really gotten started.  For a variety of reasons the media have been soft on Trump.  If he wins Iowa he’s going to start getting hit, and hard.  The Donald doesn’t handle criticism well.  He’s going to get a chance to work on those skills.

Bush 3 showed some signs of life at the debate, and has now endorsed the BBA through Article V.  Task Force Co-founder Dave Biddulph has been lobbying for this for months and it’s paid off.  Way to go, Dave.

Another Co-founder, Dave Guldenschuh, will soon be coming out with what he calls his AVC Legislative Progress Report, about which more later.  It may be delayed, since we’ve just learned that Dave’s daughter Carmen is back in the hospital.  This girl has endured more in her young life than many of us in all of our long ones.  There is no justice on this earth, it awaits us in heaven.  A brave and lovely girl, please mention little Carmen Guldenschuh in your prayers.

Ann Selzer gives Trump a five point edge, and I’m not going to argue with her.  One thing she points out, right away, is that the Republican caucus attendees she polled were 47% evangelical, as opposed to the 57% of evangelicals who turned out four years ago.  This won’t move her to tweak her numbers, as other pollsters might.  But she wants to point it out in case she’s off.  She will have pre-identified the flaw in her sample.  It’s something of an anomaly, perhaps a random sampling error.  If so, Trump’s up by just one.

I’m not shocked if Trump wins, at all.  Surprised, yes. He’s a lot smarter than I gave him credit for.  But I still think he’s got a glass jaw, is incredibly insecure, and volatile.  That said, I’ve got to give the man his due.

And yes, just like Bob Tyrrell, I’m grateful to him.  And if he actually wins the nomination?

It looks like I’m the biggest fool of all.



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