2020 foresight

The student of American politics should begin by reading Colin Woodard’s American Nations: A History of the Eleven Regional Cultures of North America.   Woodard is no conservative, but he’s smart as hell, and knows his subject in detail.  He doesn’t make the point himself, but a central lesson of his wonderful book is that this country is one that requires federalism in order for it to work.  There are eleven American subcultures, and we’re quite different from one another, always have been, and should plan on being so in the future.  What makes sense in Texas doesn’t work in Maine, and vice versa.

I think maybe that’s why everybody is so pissed off.  I know that’s why I am.  I’ve never cared for authority, and the idea that some pinheaded bureaucrat in D. C. has some control over  my life drives me to drink.  I figured this was the year we all got together and started rebelling against these bastards, but that was B.T., before Trump.  Now it will have to wait until 2020.  Even if the blowhard is elected, he won’t accomplish anything, and we’re probably going to be in worse shape than we are  now.

For our purposes, 2020 may, in fact, be ideal.  Peter Zeihan, in The Accidental Superpower, says that 2020 is the year when everything starts going to hell. That’s the year when Boomers really start retiring en masse, and the demographic problems of an aging population and shrinking work force really take hold.  This seems like a very smart guy, and I’m only half way through his book, but everything he says so far makes sense to me.  That’s how I can tell if a guy really knows what he’s talking about.

I had a nice talk with Jeff Fields of the Texas Public Policy Institute.  They may  be more tightly involved with the Task Force than they thought.  That’s very good news.  Jeff will be travelling to Washington, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana promoting Article V.  Jeff can’t figure out why there should be any problem in some of these states.  He’ll learn, soon enough.  To tell you the truth, I’d rather not travel to any more State Capitols to talk to legislators.  Jeff sounds like he’s primed to go, and will do a better job than I did.

The best part of Zeihan’s book is his analysis of the source of the post war world order  —  America as the world dominant superpower.  But those days are over.  The Free World got a free ride on the backs of the U. S. taxpayer, and that’s going to end.  It no longer makes sense for us.  We’re energy self-sufficient, and can no longer afford to be the world’s policeman.  Local powers need to develop their own defenses.  This idea  —  that NATO is dead   — is going to take a while for people to digest, and adjust to.  By 2020 it will be obvious.

I haven’t read the part of the book where he talks about international trade, but I’m pretty sure he thinks the U.S. is getting the raw end of the deal, giving everyone else a free ride.  Maybe that’s why nobody’s heard of this book.  He’s like Trump, but with real brains.  For all I know, he may be right.

NRO’s Jonah Goldberg had a piece out today about Constitutionalists.  I like that word.  And the thing is, if you can say it, you’re smart enough to be one.

 

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